Consensus PnL $17K · win rate 68% (510–243, n=753) · PM monthly #871 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$16.8K
Record
510W / 243L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 753 settled
Batting Avg
94.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#551
Source
PM monthly #871
Record (90 d)
36/811 · 4%
Trades
377
Markets
868
Volume
$16.8K
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Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 4 on the consensus side (25%)- Spread: Al Khaleej Saudi Club (-2.5)Al Khaleej Saudi Club $49 · now 50¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (Al Kholood Saudi Club)
- Will Walsall FC vs. Barnet FC end in a draw?No $13 · now 1¢ · in at 2¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Jordan win on 2026-11-13?Yes $8 · now 1¢ · in at 2¢against the consensus (No)
- Spread: Al Khaleej Saudi Club (-1.5)Al Khaleej Saudi Club $2 · now 50¢ · in at 33¢with the consensus (54% of 13)
Specialties
337 settled consensus markets · held side won 9% at an average entry of 6¢- Other Sports
+13 pts
side won 15% of 33 · avg entry 2¢
ROI +4%
- Mentions
+7 pts
side won 8% of 12 · avg entry 1¢
ROI +4%
- Soccer
+3 pts
side won 7% of 193 · avg entry 4¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 13% of 67 at an average 18¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 94%(won 7% of 316)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 0% of 8)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 56% of 9)
- 70¢ and up: 1%(won 100% of 4)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.