Spread: Al Khaleej Saudi Club (-2.5)
7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Al Kholood Saudi Club (58%) · Al Kholood Saudi Club at 51¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Al Kholood Saudi Club
12
Al Kholood Saudi Club 58%
$3.0K
$23.28
80.6¢ → 50.5¢
-37% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralAl Kholood Saudi Club at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
59h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
58% of non-arb traders are on Al Kholood Saudi Club. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PU purplegatto | Al Kholood Saudi Clubavg 90¢ | $1.9K | $1.1K | -$855.75 | 49% 6317-6474 (12791) |
JA JabJabichCTR | Al Khaleej Saudi Clubavg 10¢ | $216.65 | $1.1K | +$855.75 | 61% 195-127 (322) |
 0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121CTR | Al Khaleej Saudi Clubavg 45.3¢ | $242.93 | $265.34 | +$22.41 | 83% 89-18 (107) |
FO forecastication4 | Al Kholood Saudi Clubavg 55¢ | $215.05 | $197.46 | -$17.6 | 50% 1388-1394 (2782) |
TO topdogbigboi | Al Kholood Saudi Clubavg 52.8¢ | $136.68 | $130.8 | -$3.29 | 47% 11844-13618 (25462) |
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR<$100 | Al Khaleej Saudi Clubavg 43¢ | $55.13 | $63.46 | +$8.33 | 74% 111-39 (150) |
CA canupdatelateronCTR<$100 | Al Khaleej Saudi Clubavg 29¢ | $29 | $49 | +$20.5 | 67% 545-269 (814) |
 alpheclabs2<$100 | Al Kholood Saudi Clubavg 53¢ | $41.87 | $39.9 | -$1.98 | 47% 1256-1431 (2687) |
DI dips.CTR<$100 | Al Khaleej Saudi Clubavg 49.2¢ | $30.04 | $29.94 | +$0.97 | 47% 10679-12216 (22895) |
HI hithitfar<$100 | Al Kholood Saudi Clubavg 57.8¢ | $22.55 | $19.7 | -$2.37 | 58% 826-586 (1412) |
US User7429<$100 | Al Kholood Saudi Clubavg 84¢ | $8.6 | $5.17 | -$3.43 | 56% 9127-7285 (16412) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Al Kholood Saudi Club | $3.94 | $3.94 | -$0.27 | 67% 27537-13843 (41380) |
Invested
$1,949.81
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$855.75
Record
49%
6317-6474 (12791)
Invested
$216.65
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$855.75
Record
61%
195-127 (322)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121CTRInvested
$242.93
Value
$265.34
PnL
+$22.41
Record
83%
89-18 (107)
Invested
$215.05
Value
$197.46
PnL
-$17.6
Record
50%
1388-1394 (2782)
Invested
$136.68
Value
$130.8
PnL
-$3.29
Record
47%
11844-13618 (25462)
Invested
$55.13
Value
$63.46
PnL
+$8.33
Record
74%
111-39 (150)
Invested
$29
Value
$49
PnL
+$20.5
Record
67%
545-269 (814)
alpheclabs2<$100Invested
$41.87
Value
$39.9
PnL
-$1.98
Record
47%
1256-1431 (2687)
Invested
$30.04
Value
$29.94
PnL
+$0.97
Record
47%
10679-12216 (22895)
Invested
$22.55
Value
$19.7
PnL
-$2.37
Record
58%
826-586 (1412)
Invested
$8.6
Value
$5.17
PnL
-$3.43
Record
56%
9127-7285 (16412)
Invested
$3.94
Value
$3.94
PnL
-$0.27
Record
67%
27537-13843 (41380)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
purplegatto
Al Kholood Saudi Club — $1.1K
JabJabich
CTRAl Khaleej Saudi Club — $1.1K
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121
CTRAl Khaleej Saudi Club — $265.34
forecastication4
Al Kholood Saudi Club — $197.46
topdogbigboi
Al Kholood Saudi Club — $130.8
0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70
CTRAl Khaleej Saudi Club — $63.46
canupdatelateron
CTRAl Khaleej Saudi Club — $49
alpheclabs2
Al Kholood Saudi Club — $39.9
dips.
CTRAl Khaleej Saudi Club — $29.94
hithitfar
Al Kholood Saudi Club — $19.7