Will Walsall FC vs. Barnet FC end in a draw?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$2.3K
$154.57
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO looppau | Yesavg 85.3¢ | $2.0K | $2.3K | +$331.41 | 99% 12696-101 (12797) |
BU Burkilota1CTR | Noavg 15.9¢ | $135.18 | $11.03 | -$124.15 | 62% 777-469 (1246) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 17¢ | $51.08 | $3.9 | -$47.18 | 19% 2872-12252 (15124) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 3.1¢ | $5.22 | $2.16 | -$3.06 | 34% 19186-36821 (56007) |
CA canupdatelateronCTR<$100 | Noavg 2¢ | $30 | $1.11 | -$2.44 | 67% 543-266 (809) |
Invested
$2,010.46
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$331.41
Record
99%
12696-101 (12797)
Invested
$135.18
Value
$11.03
PnL
-$124.15
Record
62%
777-469 (1246)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$51.08
Value
$3.9
PnL
-$47.18
Record
19%
2872-12252 (15124)
Invested
$5.22
Value
$2.16
PnL
-$3.06
Record
34%
19186-36821 (56007)
Invested
$30
Value
$1.11
PnL
-$2.44
Record
67%
543-266 (809)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.