Consensus PnL $357K · win rate 56% (111–86, n=197) · PM monthly #58 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$356.7K
Record
111W / 86L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 197 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1404
Source
PM monthly #58
Trades
355
Markets
219
Volume
$1.8M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 4 on the consensus side (0%)- Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Under $13K · now 34¢ · in at 42¢against the consensus (Over)
- Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5Over $11K · now 5¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (Under)
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 221.5Under $3.7K · now 50¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Over)
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Real Racing Club $1.5K · now 10¢ · in at 58¢against the consensus (Real Madrid CF)
Specialties
111 settled consensus markets · held side won 97% at an average entry of 49¢- Soccer
+48 pts
side won 97% of 63 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +49%
- NBA
+48 pts
side won 98% of 48 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +49%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 100% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 58%(won 100% of 64)
- 50–70¢: 41%(won 93% of 46)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.