Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 56¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 1

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.9K

Combined PnL

$439.68

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 55.5¢

-4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares16,662

Combined PnL+$516.1

Over2 traders

Total Value$687.63

Total Shares1,764

Combined PnL-$76.42

Under — 78%Over — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 56.4¢	$6.4K	$6.9K	+$473.39	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 43.7¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$182.64	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.7¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$261.44
└ Under leg	Underavg 57¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$78.8
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 61.6¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$148.08	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.6¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$157.6
└ Over leg	Overavg 38.6¢	$428.73	$482.63	+$9.53
RN1	Underavg 61¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$43.26	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Underavg 55.7¢	$893.09	$909.16	+$16.07	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.7¢	$582.12	$638.07	+$55.95
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.4¢	$301.58	$271.08	-$39.88
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 60¢	$809.3	$816.05	+$6.74	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 44¢	$734	$650.59	-$75.07	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
0xheavy888	Underavg 61.8¢	$494.74	$487.98	-$10.76	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
FO forecastication4<$100	Underavg 60¢	$93	$94.55	+$1.55	49% 1199-1227 (2426)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 60¢	$70.1	$70.82	-$0.91	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
└ Under leg	Underavg 60¢	$38.12	$38.43	+$0.32
└ Over leg	Overavg 39¢	$31.98	$32.39	-$1.23
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 40.9¢	$39.36	$37.04	-$1.36	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
TI timezonewarrior<$100	Underavg 59¢	$28.34	$28.82	+$1.68	45% 107-132 (239)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 57.3¢	$5.83	$6.05	+$0.23	52% 7503-6793 (14296)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$6,428.97

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$473.39

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,974.11

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$182.64

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Both legs:

Over$1,705.5443.7¢-$261.44

Under$1,268.5757¢+$78.8

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,338.51

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$148.08

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

Both legs:

Under$1,909.7861.6¢-$157.6

Over$428.7338.6¢+$9.53

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,763.61

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$43.26

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Under

Invested

$893.09

Value

$909.16

PnL

+$16.07

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

Both legs:

Under$582.1255.7¢+$55.95

Over$301.5843.4¢-$39.88

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$809.3

Value

$816.05

PnL

+$6.74

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$734

Value

$650.59

PnL

-$75.07

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$494.74

Value

$487.98

PnL

-$10.76

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

forecastication4<$100

Under

Invested

$93

Value

$94.55

PnL

+$1.55

Record

49%

1199-1227 (2426)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$70.1

Value

$70.82

PnL

-$0.91

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Both legs:

Invested

$39.36

Value

$37.04

PnL

-$1.36

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

timezonewarrior<$100

Under

Invested

$28.34

Value

$28.82

PnL

+$1.68

Record

45%

107-132 (239)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$5.83

Value

$6.05

PnL

+$0.23

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.