Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 221.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 51¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 1

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.4K

Combined PnL

-$34.86

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 50.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares7,613

Combined PnL-$26.9

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,393

Combined PnL-$7.96

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 51.2¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	+$44.06	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.2¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	+$21.43
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.8¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$22.63
HI hi774cARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$4.0K	$4.2K	+$165.75	52% 4818-4536 (9354)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$21.19
└ Under leg	Underavg 46¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$144.57
FO Forecastication2	Underavg 49¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$18.17	50% 7122-7165 (14287)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 49.5¢	$984.49	$999.09	+$1.86	50% 33839-33425 (67264)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Overavg 52¢	$1,000	$990.38	-$9.62	54% 732-617 (1349)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 49¢	$640.92	$634.38	-$6.54	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
AY ay118	Underavg 50¢	$500	$495.16	-$4.84	47% 36-41 (77)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Overavg 51.4¢	$227.87	$228.69	+$0.82	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 50.6¢	$44.61	$33.07	+$0.89	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 48¢	$28.15	$28.63	+$0.8	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$5.2	$5.2	-$0.05	52% 7499-6786 (14285)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,109.97

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$44.06

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

Both legs:

Over$3,498.9351.2¢+$21.43

Under$1,611.0547.8¢+$22.63

hi774cARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,018.62

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$165.75

Record

52%

4818-4536 (9354)

Both legs:

Over$2,118.6250¢+$21.19

Under$1,90046¢+$144.57

Forecastication2

Under

Invested

$1,780.66

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$18.17

Record

50%

7122-7165 (14287)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$984.49

Value

$999.09

PnL

+$1.86

Record

50%

33839-33425 (67264)

pltrkr111CTR

Over

Invested

$1,000

Value

$990.38

PnL

-$9.62

Record

54%

732-617 (1349)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$640.92

Value

$634.38

PnL

-$6.54

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

ay118

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$495.16

PnL

-$4.84

Record

47%

36-41 (77)

HerdoniaCTR

Over

Invested

$227.87

Value

$228.69

PnL

+$0.82

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$44.61

Value

$33.07

PnL

+$0.89

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$28.15

Value

$28.63

PnL

+$0.8

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.2

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

7499-6786 (14285)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.