Consensus PnL $29K · win rate 34% (299–588, n=887) · was PM monthly #950 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$28.6K
Record
299W / 588L
Win Rate
34.0%
of 887 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2163
Source
PM monthly #950
Trades
17
Markets
963
Volume
$152.8K
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 3 on the consensus side (0%)- Clippers vs. WarriorsWarriors $1.3K · now 54¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (Clippers)
- Spread: Bears (-5.5)Seahawks $828 · now 76¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (Bears)
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?Yes $8 · now 2¢ · in at 6¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
191 settled consensus markets · held side won 93% at an average entry of 34¢- Weather
+65 pts
side won 100% of 27 · avg entry 35¢
ROI +62%
- Soccer
+57 pts
side won 92% of 87 · avg entry 35¢
ROI +44%
- Esports
+61 pts
side won 95% of 22 · avg entry 34¢
ROI +47%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 46%(won 87% of 87)
- 30–50¢: 30%(won 95% of 57)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 100% of 40)
- 70¢ and up: 4%(won 100% of 7)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.