Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Clippers, while the market favors Warriors (54%). 8 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Clippers vs. Warriors

8 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (44%) · Clippers at 47¢ · $40K held · ends Nov 2

Clippers47¢Warriors53¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 44%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$40.0K

Combined PnL

-$823.21

Smart Money Entry

44.8¢ → 46.5¢

+4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

8 of 18 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 54%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Clippers47%

Warriors54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers8 traders

Total Value$22.4K

Total Shares48,681

Combined PnL+$448.14

Warriors10 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares25,809

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Clippers — 44%Warriors — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClippers 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpWarriors 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrWarriors 50% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000Warriors 56% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR	Clippersavg 46¢	$18.4K	$18.4K	-$0	54% 325-279 (604)
HI hi774c	Warriorsavg 69.3¢	$6.1K	$4.8K	$-1.3K	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
BT btmx6	Warriorsavg 54¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$0	42% 18-25 (43)
SU SunlineTicker	Warriorsavg 54¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$0	62% 4201-2576 (6777)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Clippersavg 40.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$119.08	53% 453-396 (849)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR	Clippersavg 36.9¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$246.25	54% 399-345 (744)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Warriorsavg 54¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$6.86	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 54¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$9.76
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 44.3¢	$329.83	$346.44	+$16.61
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Warriorsavg 56¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$9.62	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 56¢	$801	$772.39	-$35.76
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 44.1¢	$478.86	$499.56	+$26.13
CL claudesports	Warriorsavg 39¢	$932.1	$1.3K	+$394.35	35% 349-650 (999)
TA takeormake	Warriorsavg 58.6¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$107.79	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Clippersavg 39.6¢	$676.84	$785.71	+$83.55	50% 7125-7171 (14296)
PE peepeepooppoop	Warriorsavg 75¢	$862.61	$609.58	-$247.28	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
AA aaabbb	Warriorsavg 56.3¢	$618.85	$582.39	-$9	50% 447-446 (893)
RO rocky42019ARB<$100	Warriorsavg 60¢	$374.46	$350.36	-$9.83	42% 1725-2358 (4083)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 60¢	$240.89	$212.78	-$18.07
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 41.7¢	$124.86	$137.58	+$8.23
BO BoomLaLaARB<$100	Warriorsavg 53.2¢	$256.18	$262.23	+$6.8	53% 11582-10087 (21669)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 53.2¢	$190.04	$192.78	+$0.79
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 42.5¢	$64.18	$69.45	+$6.02
SN SnakeBall	Warriorsavg 54¢	$122.85	$121.71	-$1.14	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
GH ghorrock	Warriorsavg 54.5¢	$111.48	$109.59	-$1.89	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
funnydayCTR<$100	Clippersavg 46¢	$92	$92	+$0	50% 3914-3899 (7813)
TP tphhhCTR<$100	Clippersavg 46¢	$85.37	$86.29	+$0.93	91% 631-60 (691)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Warriorsavg 60.8¢	$87.89	$81.85	-$6.79	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 60.8¢	$66.22	$58.86	-$7.36
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 43.4¢	$21.67	$22.99	+$0.57
poshposh<$100	Warriorsavg 60¢	$63.18	$55.81	-$4.74	58% 10670-7656 (18326)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Clippersavg 56¢	$22.4	$18.4	-$3.8	50% 7972-8009 (15981)
US User7429CTR<$100	Clippersavg 36¢	$7.29	$9.32	+$2.13	55% 8413-6766 (15179)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR

Clippers

Invested

$18,399.99

Value

$18.4K

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

325-279 (604)

hi774c

Warriors

Invested

$6,135.03

Value

$4.8K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

btmx6

Warriors

Invested

$2,856.03

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

18-25 (43)

SunlineTicker

Warriors

Invested

$2,600.1

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

4201-2576 (6777)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Clippers

Invested

$1,459.78

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$119.08

Record

53%

453-396 (849)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR

Clippers

Invested

$1,194.17

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$246.25

Record

54%

399-345 (744)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$1,455.79

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$6.86

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

Both legs:

Warriors$1,125.9654¢-$9.76

Clippers$329.8344.3¢+$16.61

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$1,279.86

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$9.62

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

Both legs:

Warriors$80156¢-$35.76

Clippers$478.8644.1¢+$26.13

claudesports

Warriors

Invested

$932.1

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$394.35

Record

35%

349-650 (999)

takeormake

Warriors

Invested

$1,249.02

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$107.79

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

Forecastication2CTR

Clippers

Invested

$676.84

Value

$785.71

PnL

+$83.55

Record

50%

7125-7171 (14296)

peepeepooppoop

Warriors

Invested

$862.61

Value

$609.58

PnL

-$247.28

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

aaabbb

Warriors

Invested

$618.85

Value

$582.39

PnL

-$9

Record

50%

447-446 (893)

rocky42019ARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$374.46

Value

$350.36

PnL

-$9.83

Record

42%

1725-2358 (4083)

Both legs:

Warriors$240.8960¢-$18.07

Clippers$124.8641.7¢+$8.23

BoomLaLaARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$256.18

Value

$262.23

PnL

+$6.8

Record

53%

11582-10087 (21669)

Both legs:

Warriors$190.0453.2¢+$0.79

Clippers$64.1842.5¢+$6.02

SnakeBall

Warriors

Invested

$122.85

Value

$121.71

PnL

-$1.14

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

ghorrock

Warriors

Invested

$111.48

Value

$109.59

PnL

-$1.89

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

funnydayCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$92

Value

$92

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3914-3899 (7813)

tphhhCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$85.37

Value

$86.29

PnL

+$0.93

Record

91%

631-60 (691)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$87.89

Value

$81.85

PnL

-$6.79

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Both legs:

Warriors$66.2260.8¢-$7.36

Clippers$21.6743.4¢+$0.57

poshposh<$100

Warriors

Invested

$63.18

Value

$55.81

PnL

-$4.74

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

RLWGCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$22.4

Value

$18.4

PnL

-$3.8

Record

50%

7972-8009 (15981)

User7429CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$7.29

Value

$9.32

PnL

+$2.13

Record

55%

8413-6766 (15179)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

8 of 18 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 54%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClippers 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpWarriors 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrWarriors 50% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000Warriors 56% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.