Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 98¢ · $67K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$67.2K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

94.8¢ → 98.2¢

+3% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$67.2K

Total Shares68,557

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$17.11

Total Shares925

Combined PnL-$323.81

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 91% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AM amis	Noavg 94.7¢	$33.3K	$34.4K	+$1.2K	88% 249-34 (283)
AV Avamax	Noavg 95.8¢	$25.5K	$25.2K	+$538.34	81% 421-101 (522)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 94.6¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$80.52	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	Noavg 91.5¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$133	88% 2229-292 (2521)
AL Albert 1953	Noavg 95.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$28.99	50% 1093-1094 (2187)
JA JanAMEX	Noavg 87¢	$869.99	$979.99	+$111	88% 321-44 (365)
BabyIBeenWatchingYou	Noavg 94¢	$470	$490	+$20.75	65% 966-523 (1489)
CH chriszyy3	Noavg 96¢	$279.18	$285	+$6.25	94% 242-16 (258)
PH phdcapital	Noavg 88¢	$171.27	$190.73	+$19.66	94% 259-17 (276)
ST stupid22	Noavg 98¢	$174.44	$174.44	+$0.27	94% 412-26 (438)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 11¢	$6.05	$53.9	+$47.93	18% 3833-17376 (21209)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 62.7¢	$316.11	$9.32	-$306.54	56% 973-770 (1743)
CL claudesportsCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$25.28	$7.79	-$17.27	35% 349-650 (999)

amis

Invested

$33,289.94

Value

$34.4K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

88%

249-34 (283)

Avamax

Invested

$25,537.73

Value

$25.2K

PnL

+$538.34

Record

81%

421-101 (522)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$2,182.01

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$80.52

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04

Invested

$1,830

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$133

Record

88%

2229-292 (2521)

Albert 1953

Invested

$1,104.77

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$28.99

Record

50%

1093-1094 (2187)

JanAMEX

Invested

$869.99

Value

$979.99

PnL

+$111

Record

88%

321-44 (365)

BabyIBeenWatchingYou

Invested

$470

Value

$490

PnL

+$20.75

Record

65%

966-523 (1489)

chriszyy3

Invested

$279.18

Value

$285

PnL

+$6.25

Record

94%

242-16 (258)

phdcapital

Invested

$171.27

Value

$190.73

PnL

+$19.66

Record

94%

259-17 (276)

stupid22

Invested

$174.44

Value

$174.44

PnL

+$0.27

Record

94%

412-26 (438)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$6.05

Value

$53.9

PnL

+$47.93

Record

18%

3833-17376 (21209)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$316.11

Value

$9.32

PnL

-$306.54

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

claudesportsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.28

Value

$7.79

PnL

-$17.27

Record

35%

349-650 (999)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 91% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.