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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
00gringo000x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343beachboy4BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)no settled market47% (620–692, n=1312)no settled market45% (573–710, n=1283)
Consensus PnL—$70K—$9.4M
Tracked as—PM monthly #25—PM monthly #3
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position62% (75 of 121 open)no open consensus position85% (29 of 34 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yetnot computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
Weakest topic—F1 −7 pts, n=25——
Settled positions, side won—61% of 2047 at avg 60¢, ROI +5%—97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%
Entries under 30¢—37% (won 2% of 753)—11% (won 80% of 61)
Entries 30–50¢—3% (won 39% of 61)—35% (won 98% of 203)
Entries 50–70¢—3% (won 73% of 55)—35% (won 100% of 201)
Entries 70¢ and up—58% (won 99% of 1178)—20% (won 100% of 115)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market00gringo000x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343beachboy4BreakTheBank
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $1.4K—No $87K
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $66—Yes $74K