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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
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Record (consensus markets)73% (496–181, n=677)68% (43–20, n=63)53% (10–9, n=19)65% (862–456, n=1318)
Consensus PnL$88K$5.8M$5.6M$4.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #751was PM monthly #24PM monthly #2PM monthly #69
Sides with the consensus0% (0 of 1 open)100% (1 of 1 open)no open consensus position68% (49 of 72 open)
Strongest topics
  • NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
Weakest topic—NBA −6 pts, n=93—NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won81% of 639 at avg 68¢, ROI +11%57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢5% (won 6% of 35)3% (won 17% of 6)12% (won 0% of 2)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢13% (won 53% of 83)30% (won 57% of 63)6% (won 0% of 1)20% (won 39% of 252)
Entries 50–70¢28% (won 82% of 176)54% (won 51% of 115)65% (won 73% of 11)24% (won 57% of 306)
Entries 70¢ and up54% (won 94% of 345)14% (won 86% of 29)18% (won 67% of 3)43% (won 93% of 540)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.