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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| PROBABILITYTRADER | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 | beachboy4 | ndb1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (974–1212, n=2186) | 46% (131–154, n=285) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 65% (862–456, n=1318) |
| Consensus PnL | -$161K | -$6.6M | $5.8M | $4.1M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #666 | was PM monthly #715 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #69 |
| Sides with the consensus | 0% (0 of 1 open) | no open consensus position | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 68% (49 of 72 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | NBA −3 pts, n=120 | College Basketball −12 pts, n=174 | NBA −6 pts, n=93 | NFL −10 pts, n=132 |
| Settled positions, side won | 46% of 2442 at avg 40¢, ROI +3% | 49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2% | 57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 22% (won 14% of 528) | 0% (won 17% of 6) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 13% (won 16% of 160) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 51% (won 47% of 1238) | 42% (won 46% of 565) | 30% (won 57% of 63) | 20% (won 39% of 252) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 27% (won 70% of 671) | 57% (won 51% of 766) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 24% (won 57% of 306) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 0% (won 100% of 5) | 0% (won 100% of 4) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 43% (won 93% of 540) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.