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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| ferdinand2 | BreakTheBank | surfandturf | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 50% (653–659, n=1312) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 52% (273–252, n=525) | 61% (495–321, n=816) |
| Consensus PnL | -$42K | $11.0M | -$77K | -$352K |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #491 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #326 | was PM monthly #51 |
| Sides with the consensus | 63% (52 of 82 open) | 87% (143 of 164 open) | 0% (0 of 1 open) | 72% (13 of 18 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Soccer −3 pts, n=419 | — | NFL −11 pts, n=58 | Soccer ±0 pts, n=115 |
| Settled positions, side won | 51% of 554 at avg 52¢, ROI +3% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% | 60% of 822 at avg 48¢, ROI +5% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 24% (won 5% of 131) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 20% (won 12% of 109) | 15% (won 29% of 125) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 24% (won 39% of 132) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 21% (won 46% of 114) | 34% (won 58% of 283) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 23% (won 64% of 130) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 33% (won 60% of 176) | 43% (won 69% of 354) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 29% (won 88% of 161) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 26% (won 82% of 137) | 7% (won 80% of 60) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | ferdinand2 | BreakTheBank | surfandturf | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wizards vs. Magic opposite sides · consensus Magic | Wizards $379 | — | — | Magic $19K |
| Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 213.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Over $282 | — | — | Under $16K |