Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Wizards, while the market favors Magic (56%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Wizards vs. Magic

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (60%) · Wizards at 45¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 3

Wizards45¢Magic55¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

$64.46

Smart Money Entry

43.7¢ → 44.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Magic 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wizards45%

Magic56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards6 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares10,149

Combined PnL+$63.68

Magic4 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,065

Combined PnL+$0.78

Wizards — 60%Magic — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123CTR	Wizardsavg 44¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$31.46	52% 1579-1465 (3044)
nigiri99	Magicavg 55.7¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$9.38	46% 7287-8594 (15881)
VeryLucky888	Magicavg 56¢	$1.0K	$989.99	+$9	58% 43592-31705 (75297)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 45.1¢	$977.86	$971.83	-$6.04	49% 2923-3042 (5965)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 45.1¢	$682.09	$673.52	-$8.57
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 55¢	$295.77	$298.31	+$2.53
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR	Wizardsavg 40¢	$763.48	$839.83	+$66.8	54% 404-347 (751)
OD OddstormCTR	Wizardsavg 48.1¢	$520.88	$482.03	-$38.85	48% 7156-7647 (14803)
FE ferdinand2CTR	Wizardsavg 44¢	$287.5	$287.5	+$3.27	51% 991-958 (1949)
BO BoomLaLaARB<$100	Wizardsavg 46¢	$167.7	$120.03	-$2.68	54% 11661-10125 (21786)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 46¢	$66.71	$64.53	-$3.18
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 55¢	$55	$55.5	+$0.5
funnydayCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 44¢	$88	$88	+$1	50% 3925-3907 (7832)
GH ghorrock<$100	Magicavg 55.9¢	$43.55	$44.51	+$0.97	57% 17234-12896 (30130)
SE sentrio<$100	Magicavg 55¢	$21.52	$21.72	+$0.2	50% 24998-24716 (49714)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 44¢	$4.76	$4.76	+$0	44% 6439-8045 (14484)

vibing123CTR

Wizards

Invested

$2,768.68

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$31.46

Record

52%

1579-1465 (3044)

nigiri99

Magic

Invested

$2,310.08

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$9.38

Record

46%

7287-8594 (15881)

VeryLucky888

Magic

Invested

$1,007.99

Value

$989.99

PnL

+$9

Record

58%

43592-31705 (75297)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$977.86

Value

$971.83

PnL

-$6.04

Record

49%

2923-3042 (5965)

Both legs:

Wizards$682.0945.1¢-$8.57

Magic$295.7755¢+$2.53

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR

Wizards

Invested

$763.48

Value

$839.83

PnL

+$66.8

Record

54%

404-347 (751)

OddstormCTR

Wizards

Invested

$520.88

Value

$482.03

PnL

-$38.85

Record

48%

7156-7647 (14803)

ferdinand2CTR

Wizards

Invested

$287.5

Value

$287.5

PnL

+$3.27

Record

51%

991-958 (1949)

BoomLaLaARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$167.7

Value

$120.03

PnL

-$2.68

Record

54%

11661-10125 (21786)

Both legs:

Wizards$66.7146¢-$3.18

Magic$5555¢+$0.5

funnydayCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$88

Value

$88

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

3925-3907 (7832)

ghorrock<$100

Magic

Invested

$43.55

Value

$44.51

PnL

+$0.97

Record

57%

17234-12896 (30130)

sentrio<$100

Magic

Invested

$21.52

Value

$21.72

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

24998-24716 (49714)

suntoriCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

6439-8045 (14484)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Magic 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.