Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
	graynotebook19	joseph00677	ndb1	sainttroplay
Record (consensus markets)	58% (9765–6966, n=16731)	53% (10–9, n=19)	66% (877–458, n=1335)	71% (10–4, n=14)
Consensus PnL	$47K	$5.6M	$4.1M	$4.4M
Tracked as	PM monthly #126	PM monthly #2	PM monthly #12	was PM monthly #11
Sides with the consensus	85% (248 of 292 open)	no open consensus position	73% (27 of 37 open)	no open consensus position
Strongest topics	Crypto +4 pts n=27, ROI −5%	Soccer +22 pts n=11, ROI +33%	Soccer +4 pts n=607, ROI +7% MLB +6 pts n=44, ROI +30% Other Sports +12 pts n=10, ROI +18%	Soccer +51 pts n=10, ROI +52%
Weakest topic	Elections −3 pts, n=1186	—	NFL −10 pts, n=132	—
Settled positions, side won	37% of 5132 at avg 39¢, ROI −2%	59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%	64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%	100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52%
Entries under 30¢	59% (won 1% of 3042)	12% (won 0% of 2)	13% (won 16% of 160)	0%
Entries 30–50¢	2% (won 38% of 125)	6% (won 0% of 1)	20% (won 40% of 253)	50% (won 100% of 5)
Entries 50–70¢	5% (won 60% of 240)	65% (won 73% of 11)	24% (won 57% of 310)	50% (won 100% of 5)
Entries 70¢ and up	34% (won 96% of 1725)	18% (won 67% of 3)	43% (won 93% of 544)	0%

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

2 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market	graynotebook19	joseph00677	ndb1	sainttroplay
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus No	No $399	—	No $7.1K	—
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes	No $3	—	No $3.2K	—