Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 17 of 27 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

17 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 49¢ · $88K held

Yes49¢No51¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$88.3K

Combined PnL

$20.6K

Smart Money Entry

31.9¢ → 48.5¢

+52% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 27 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes17 traders

Total Value$70.0K

Total Shares143,003

Combined PnL+$24.5K

No10 traders

Total Value$18.3K

Total Shares35,667

Combined PnL$-3.9K

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

105 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 73% · 11

Aligned

sharpYes 57% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 69% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 65% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 25.3¢	$18.2K	$34.7K	+$16.5K	56% 973-769 (1742)
LO Loyalty-CrashCTR	Yesavg 37.8¢	$10.3K	$13.3K	+$2.9K	62% 45-28 (73)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 42.6¢	$7.6K	$7.7K	+$110.67	36% 190-333 (523)
FL flawfence	Noavg 62.5¢	$7.4K	$6.1K	$-1.3K	46% 271-319 (590)
Chungvicular	Noavg 59¢	$4.2K	$3.7K	-$536.58	46% 49-57 (106)
LI lissartter	Noavg 56.9¢	$3.8K	$3.4K	-$325.93	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 25.9¢	$1.7K	$3.2K	+$1.5K	38% 20-32 (52)
Optimus-CTR	Yesavg 44.4¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$186.83	61% 1200-767 (1967)
SeutervoinenCTR	Yesavg 35¢	$2.9	$2.2K	+$1.8K	85% 311-57 (368)
BiDiFakePolls	Noavg 54.7¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$129.99	58% 182-132 (314)
FO Folletin	Noavg 76.4¢	$2.1K	$1.4K	-$698.66	69% 423-188 (611)
ZE zerosmartCTR	Yesavg 37.9¢	$954.91	$1.4K	+$365.48	48% 66-72 (138)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 37.6¢	$715.56	$1.3K	+$612.84	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
HO HotDogs	Noavg 84.7¢	$1.8K	$1.1K	-$715.76	94% 442-28 (470)
AgricultureSecretaryCTR	Yesavg 41.1¢	$871.75	$1.0K	+$158.01	83% 3802-801 (4603)
wagwanshawtyCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$802.26	$810.53	+$8.27	— 10-5 (15)
perfectnostalgiaCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$390	$490	+$95	55% 338-273 (611)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 48.8¢	$390	$392	-$2	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
DE dedidanc	Noavg 72.9¢	$493.76	$337.62	-$141.3	57% 103-77 (180)
EA EatprayloveCTR	Yesavg 10.8¢	$71.07	$317.25	+$246.18	57% 766-585 (1351)
PI piepedCTR	Yesavg 47¢	$105.46	$109.95	+$3.37	42% 71-100 (171)
PU PutsOnPeace	Noavg 74¢	$148	$102	-$45	66% 955-482 (1437)
SB sbimbg<$100	Noavg 57¢	$52.6	$47.07	-$5.08	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 46.5¢	$41.03	$40.81	+$1.13	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
Warren-BuffettCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$14.99	$31.94	+$16.62	65% 862-465 (1327)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$18,218.27

Value

$34.7K

PnL

+$16.5K

Record

56%

973-769 (1742)

Loyalty-CrashCTR

Yes

Invested

$10,262.14

Value

$13.3K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

62%

45-28 (73)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$7,608.35

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$110.67

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

flawfence

Invested

$7,391.75

Value

$6.1K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

Chungvicular

Invested

$4,231.55

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$536.58

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

lissartter

Invested

$3,755.47

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$325.93

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,725.91

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Optimus-CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,664.08

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$186.83

Record

61%

1200-767 (1967)

SeutervoinenCTR

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

BiDiFakePolls

Invested

$2,189.98

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$129.99

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

Folletin

Invested

$2,132.24

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$698.66

Record

69%

423-188 (611)

zerosmartCTR

Yes

Invested

$954.91

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$365.48

Record

48%

66-72 (138)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$715.56

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$612.84

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

HotDogs

Invested

$1,814.9

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$715.76

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

AgricultureSecretaryCTR

Yes

Invested

$871.75

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$158.01

Record

83%

3802-801 (4603)

wagwanshawtyCTR

Yes

Invested

$802.26

Value

$810.53

PnL

+$8.27

Record

—

10-5 (15)

perfectnostalgiaCTR

Yes

Invested

$390

Value

$490

PnL

+$95

Record

55%

338-273 (611)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$390

Value

$392

PnL

-$2

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

dedidanc

Invested

$493.76

Value

$337.62

PnL

-$141.3

Record

57%

103-77 (180)

EatprayloveCTR

Yes

Invested

$71.07

Value

$317.25

PnL

+$246.18

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

piepedCTR

Yes

Invested

$105.46

Value

$109.95

PnL

+$3.37

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

PutsOnPeace

Invested

$148

Value

$102

PnL

-$45

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

sbimbg<$100

Invested

$52.6

Value

$47.07

PnL

-$5.08

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.03

Value

$40.81

PnL

+$1.13

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Warren-BuffettCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.99

Value

$31.94

PnL

+$16.62

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 27 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

105 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 73% · 11

Aligned

sharpYes 57% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 69% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 65% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.5%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$98.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

198.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.