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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
tnlsurfandturfBreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)53% (541–488, n=1029)52% (273–252, n=525)45% (542–652, n=1194)
Consensus PnL$21K$4.1M$10.6M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #841was PM monthly #326PM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus74% (37 of 50 open)50% (1 of 2 open)90% (146 of 163 open)
Strongest topics
  • MMA +4 pts n=148, ROI +10%
  • NBA +4 pts n=76, ROI +12%
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
Weakest topicElections −13 pts, n=17NFL −11 pts, n=58—
Settled positions, side won52% of 993 at avg 50¢, ROI +1%53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0%97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢25% (won 17% of 248)20% (won 12% of 109)10% (won 82% of 56)
Entries 30–50¢25% (won 44% of 245)21% (won 46% of 114)36% (won 98% of 198)
Entries 50–70¢25% (won 60% of 248)33% (won 60% of 176)35% (won 99% of 191)
Entries 70¢ and up25% (won 86% of 252)26% (won 82% of 137)19% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarkettnlsurfandturfBreakTheBank
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $35K—No $407K