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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| tnl | surfandturf | joseph00677 | CORGII | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 53% (541–489, n=1030) | 52% (273–252, n=525) | 53% (10–9, n=19) | 61% (395–248, n=643) |
| Consensus PnL | -$38K | -$77K | $5.6M | $194K |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #841 | was PM monthly #326 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #68 |
| Sides with the consensus | 73% (36 of 49 open) | no open consensus position | no open consensus position | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Elections −13 pts, n=17 | NFL −11 pts, n=58 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 52% of 993 at avg 50¢, ROI +1% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 25% (won 17% of 248) | 20% (won 12% of 109) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 9% (won 92% of 36) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 25% (won 44% of 245) | 21% (won 46% of 114) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 56% (won 99% of 223) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 25% (won 60% of 248) | 33% (won 60% of 176) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 33% (won 100% of 133) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 25% (won 86% of 252) | 26% (won 82% of 137) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 2% (won 100% of 7) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.