Consensus PnL $533K · win rate 45% (4412–5329, n=9741) · PM monthly #391 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$532.9K
Record
4412W / 5329L
Win Rate
45.0%
of 9741 settled
Batting Avg
50.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1969
Source
PM monthly #391
Trades
226,619
Markets
19,727
Volume
$7.7M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5Over $132 · now 40¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Under)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5Over $20 · now 70¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (83% of 13)
Specialties
5,170 settled consensus markets · held side won 56% at an average entry of 49¢- Crypto
+28 pts
side won 100% of 1570 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +27%
- College Football
+24 pts
side won 90% of 343 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +15%
- NFL
+18 pts
side won 80% of 413 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +20%
Weakest: Weather — held side won 0% of 81 at an average 22¢ entry (−22 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 36%(won 6% of 1885)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 51% of 655)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 80% of 846)
- 70¢ and up: 35%(won 98% of 1784)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.