Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 70¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 10

Over70¢Under30¢Ended Sat, Oct 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$13.1

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 69.5¢

+4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over70%

Under31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over10 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,984

Combined PnL+$10.43

Under2 traders

Total Value$45.84

Total Shares148

Combined PnL+$2.67

Over — 83%Under — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

272h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI MinevaJ	Overavg 67¢	$736.12	$758.09	+$27.47	57% 1048-784 (1832)
poshposh	Overavg 63¢	$12.4	$227.15	-$4.5	58% 10670-7656 (18326)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 73¢	$173.04	$162.65	-$22.39	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Overavg 72¢	$135.38	$139.45	-$4.63	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
└ Over leg	Overavg 72¢	$113.86	$109.12	-$13.44
└ Under leg	Underavg 27.5¢	$26.9	$30.33	+$8.82
AN Anon455<$100	Overavg 58.2¢	$66.38	$78.64	+$5.99	55% 3009-2439 (5448)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 73¢	$73	$69.5	-$3.5	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$42.14	$44.29	+$2.14	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
CU curie<$100	Overavg 70¢	$20.31	$20.01	-$0.15	48% 8682-9533 (18215)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 76¢	$20	$18.16	-$1.71	67% 23466-11821 (35287)
LE leegunner<$100	Overavg 33¢	$7.96	$16.64	+$7.36	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 49.3¢	$6.68	$9.35	+$2.74	55% 8413-6766 (15179)
BE berlinskies<$100	Overavg 76¢	$9.99	$9.07	-$0.85	58% 5891-4317 (10208)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$1.03	$1.55	+$0.53	50% 24945-24626 (49571)

MinevaJ

Over

Invested

$736.12

Value

$758.09

PnL

+$27.47

Record

57%

1048-784 (1832)

poshposh

Over

Invested

$12.4

Value

$227.15

PnL

-$4.5

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$173.04

Value

$162.65

PnL

-$22.39

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

CannaeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$135.38

Value

$139.45

PnL

-$4.63

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

Both legs:

Over$113.8672¢-$13.44

Under$26.927.5¢+$8.82

Anon455<$100

Over

Invested

$66.38

Value

$78.64

PnL

+$5.99

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$73

Value

$69.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.14

Value

$44.29

PnL

+$2.14

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

curie<$100

Over

Invested

$20.31

Value

$20.01

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

8682-9533 (18215)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$18.16

PnL

-$1.71

Record

67%

23466-11821 (35287)

leegunner<$100

Over

Invested

$7.96

Value

$16.64

PnL

+$7.36

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$6.68

Value

$9.35

PnL

+$2.74

Record

55%

8413-6766 (15179)

berlinskies<$100

Over

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.07

PnL

-$0.85

Record

58%

5891-4317 (10208)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.03

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$0.53

Record

50%

24945-24626 (49571)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

272h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.