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AF
Consensus PnL $2.0K · win rate 45% (5–6, n=11) · was PM monthly #988 · holds 6 consensus positions
0xaf458bee...ce62ec7dPolymarket
⚖️Arb🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$2.0K
Record
5W / 6L
Win Rate
45.0%
of 11 settled
Batting Avg
27.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2001
Source
PM monthly #988
Trades
482
Markets
31
Volume
$480.2K
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 6 on the consensus side (83%)- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes $255K · now 97¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (74% of 34)
- Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?No $3.3K · now 99¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (62% of 13)
- Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $1.9K · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $1.8K · now 2¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (89% of 18)
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?Yes $39 · now 1¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No $2 · now 99¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
19 settled consensus markets · held side won 63% at an average entry of 58¢- Economy
+5 pts
side won 50% of 10 · avg entry 45¢
ROI −1%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 32%(won 17% of 6)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 100% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 100% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 53%(won 80% of 10)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.