Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

0.9¢ → 0.5¢

-36% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares530,235

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

446 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE fed26CTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	$-1.2K	— 7-7 (14)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$761.21	$622.75	-$138.46	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$151.13	$166.87	+$30.43	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
CarCTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$327.4	$163.7	-$163.7	67% 4164-2026 (6190)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$55.09	$29.05	-$26.04	60% 1348-884 (2232)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$24.7	$22	-$2.7	71% 968-396 (1364)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$13.5	$20.41	-$4.35	26% 351-985 (1336)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$34.72	$15.4	-$19.4	69% 156-69 (225)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$1.58	$1.58	-$0.66	7% 14-187 (201)
PA pakoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1	$0.69	-$0.31	65% 250-132 (382)

fed26CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,053.58

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

—

7-7 (14)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$761.21

Value

$622.75

PnL

-$138.46

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$151.13

Value

$166.87

PnL

+$30.43

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$327.4

Value

$163.7

PnL

-$163.7

Record

67%

4164-2026 (6190)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.09

Value

$29.05

PnL

-$26.04

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.7

Value

$22

PnL

-$2.7

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$20.41

PnL

-$4.35

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.72

Value

$15.4

PnL

-$19.4

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.58

Value

$1.58

PnL

-$0.66

Record

14-187 (201)

pakoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$0.31

Record

65%

250-132 (382)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

446 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6107.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

6207.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.