Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 16 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

16 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 1.7¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$19.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

2¢ → 1.7¢

-14% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 18 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares7,133

Combined PnL+$255.01

Yes16 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares751,947

Combined PnL$-2.1K

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

33 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 90% · 10

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 90% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RD rdba	Noavg 94.7¢	$6.7K	$6.9K	+$254.93	60% 131-88 (219)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 1.8¢	$6.1K	$5.8K	-$360.05	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
FE fed26CTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$303.53	— 7-7 (14)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 1.8¢	$2.7K	$1.7K	-$849.6	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
occasionalAwarenessCTR	Yesavg 3.8¢	$673.28	$1.3K	$-1.7K	52% 284-262 (546)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$617.96	$922.41	+$304.45	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$147.4	$738.52	+$399.11	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$10	$161.95	-$19.04	36% 16059-28074 (44133)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 3.6¢	$262.5	$127.5	-$135	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
HO hopedieslastCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$88.34	$93.86	+$5.53	59% 118-81 (199)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yes	$62.61	$62.61	+$33.84	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$62.03	$62.1	+$0.08	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$27.33	$59.56	+$32.19	47% 83-94 (177)
DEGENKHANCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$42.15	$23.8	-$18.35	66% 1107-565 (1672)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$4.79	$17.71	+$12.93	68% 2074-957 (3031)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$4.95	$4.95	+$2.68	7% 14-187 (201)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.6	$1.42	+$0.83	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$3.6K	$1.11	-$53.01	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

rdba

Invested

$6,694.49

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$254.93

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$6,121.11

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$360.05

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

fed26CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,482.55

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$303.53

Record

—

7-7 (14)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,746.85

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$849.6

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

occasionalAwarenessCTR

Yes

Invested

$673.28

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

52%

284-262 (546)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$617.96

Value

$922.41

PnL

+$304.45

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$147.4

Value

$738.52

PnL

+$399.11

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$161.95

PnL

-$19.04

Record

36%

16059-28074 (44133)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$262.5

Value

$127.5

PnL

-$135

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

hopedieslastCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.34

Value

$93.86

PnL

+$5.53

Record

59%

118-81 (199)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.61

Value

$62.61

PnL

+$33.84

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$62.03

Value

$62.1

PnL

+$0.08

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.33

Value

$59.56

PnL

+$32.19

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

DEGENKHANCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.15

Value

$23.8

PnL

-$18.35

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.79

Value

$17.71

PnL

+$12.93

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$2.68

Record

14-187 (201)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$1.42

PnL

+$0.83

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,583.92

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$53.01

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 18 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

33 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 90% · 10

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 90% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.8%

1.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3464.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

3565.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.