Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

25 of 34 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (74%) · Yes at 97¢ · $1.1M held · ends Dec 31

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 74%

Total Value

$1.1M

Combined PnL

$277.1K

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 97¢

+34% since entry · 25 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

25 of 34 top traders (74%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes25 traders

Total Value$1.1M

Total Shares1,112,063

Combined PnL+$287.6K

No9 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares114,613

Combined PnL$-10.4K

Yes — 74%No — 26%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

25 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

189 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

74% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 12

Aligned

sharpYes 91% · 11

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 17

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 69% · 16

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 23

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul	Yesavg 80.7¢	$519.4K	$624.5K	+$105.1K	63% 353-204 (557)
FE fed26	Yesavg 44.7¢	$26.2K	$255.0K	+$150.3K	— 7-7 (14)
0X 0xe617861a96631d7cefdb1ad43e95c33b5946f251	Yesavg 89¢	$50.0K	$54.6K	+$4.5K	89% 538-64 (602)
LA Lasting-Dessert	Yesavg 71.5¢	$23.7K	$32.3K	+$8.5K	89% 563-67 (630)
FO forgetfuldory	Yesavg 96.5¢	$19.9K	$19.9K	+$36.07	— 5-5 (10)
PH phdcapital	Yesavg 66.8¢	$13.4K	$19.4K	+$6.0K	94% 259-17 (276)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 86.6¢	$17.3K	$19.4K	+$2.1K	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
WongKimArk	Yesavg 75.3¢	$8.5K	$10.9K	+$2.4K	63% 217-127 (344)
QM QMG-CORE	Yesavg 95.9¢	$8.5K	$8.6K	+$102	77% 1408-416 (1824)
Ahpo	Yesavg 95.4¢	$23.4K	$7.8K	+$144.99	87% 1622-251 (1873)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 76.9¢	$4.6K	$6.8K	+$2.0K	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
allenzzz	Yesavg 97.1¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	-$14.78	78% 125-36 (161)
DEGENKHAN	Yesavg 96.4¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$8.5	66% 1107-565 (1672)
LI lissartter	Yesavg 36.9¢	$13.84	$2.9K	+$1.8K	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
RememberAmalek	Yesavg 74¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$574.29	56% 973-770 (1743)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 83.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$14.26	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
LO Logan.	Yesavg 21.3¢	$433.5	$1.8K	+$1.4K	41% 648-925 (1573)
ImJustKenCTR	Noavg 11¢	$6.3K	$1.7K	$-4.6K	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
WO wokerjoesleeper	Yesavg 8.5¢	$2.53	$1.6K	+$1.6K	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
OL ololololololololoCTR	Noavg 11.2¢	$3.7K	$996.21	$-2.7K	35% 41-77 (118)
StupidMonkeyyy	Yesavg 93¢	$581.25	$606.87	+$25	50% 147-145 (292)
Talophex	Yesavg 91.4¢	$411.35	$436.95	+$24.03	91% 929-95 (1024)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Yesavg 70.5¢	$300.12	$413.38	+$113.23	69% 156-69 (225)
CD CDAP1	Yesavg 13¢	$61.34	$388.45	+$327.12	30% 11-26 (37)
CO cowcat	Yesavg 3.6¢	$2.04	$335.78	+$294.91	53% 1560-1362 (2922)

TheReturnOfDarthMaul

Yes

Invested

$519,379.34

Value

$624.5K

PnL

+$105.1K

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

fed26

Yes

Invested

$26,247.54

Value

$255.0K

PnL

+$150.3K

Record

—

7-7 (14)

0xe617861a96631d7cefdb1ad43e95c33b5946f251

Yes

Invested

$50,000.05

Value

$54.6K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

89%

538-64 (602)

Lasting-Dessert

Yes

Invested

$23,737.34

Value

$32.3K

PnL

+$8.5K

Record

89%

563-67 (630)

forgetfuldory

Yes

Invested

$19,862.36

Value

$19.9K

PnL

+$36.07

Record

—

5-5 (10)

phdcapital

Yes

Invested

$13,362.47

Value

$19.4K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

94%

259-17 (276)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$17,319.88

Value

$19.4K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

WongKimArk

Yes

Invested

$8,464.35

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

63%

217-127 (344)

QMG-CORE

Yes

Invested

$8,531.8

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$102

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

Ahpo

Yes

Invested

$23,393.51

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$144.99

Record

87%

1622-251 (1873)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$4,552.15

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

allenzzz

Yes

Invested

$4,227.87

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$14.78

Record

78%

125-36 (161)

DEGENKHAN

Yes

Invested

$2,899.1

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$8.5

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

lissartter

Yes

Invested

$13.84

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

RememberAmalek

Yes

Invested

$1,853.22

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$574.29

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$1,963.68

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$14.26

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

Logan.

Yes

Invested

$433.5

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

ImJustKenCTR

Invested

$6,324.02

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-4.6K

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

wokerjoesleeper

Yes

Invested

$2.53

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

ololololololololoCTR

Invested

$3,715.02

Value

$996.21

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

35%

41-77 (118)

StupidMonkeyyy

Yes

Invested

$581.25

Value

$606.87

PnL

+$25

Record

50%

147-145 (292)

Talophex

Yes

Invested

$411.35

Value

$436.95

PnL

+$24.03

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Yes

Invested

$300.12

Value

$413.38

PnL

+$113.23

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

CDAP1

Yes

Invested

$61.34

Value

$388.45

PnL

+$327.12

Record

30%

11-26 (37)

cowcat

Yes

Invested

$2.04

Value

$335.78

PnL

+$294.91

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

25 of 34 top traders (74%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

25 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

189 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

74% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 12

Aligned

sharpYes 91% · 11

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 17

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 69% · 16

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 23

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.