Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 99¢ · $53K held · ends Jan 29, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Fri, Jan 29, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$52.7K

Combined PnL

$10.6K

Smart Money Entry

77.5¢ → 98.6¢

+27% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$52.6K

Total Shares53,370

Combined PnL+$11.6K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$84.61

Total Shares7,051

Combined PnL-$915.55

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul	Noavg 78¢	$34.7K	$43.9K	+$9.2K	63% 353-204 (557)
FE fed26	Noavg 50.4¢	$1.1K	$3.3K	+$2.0K	— 7-7 (14)
Ahpo	Noavg 93.2¢	$11.7K	$3.1K	+$66.52	87% 1622-251 (1873)
Debosnys	Noavg 96.5¢	$793.39	$808.03	+$17.11	89% 1868-225 (2093)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 84¢	$616.56	$721.52	+$107.16	89% 4653-547 (5200)
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 94.4¢	$484.51	$491.51	+$7	77% 1408-416 (1824)
2B9S	Noavg 10¢	$17.4	$171.04	+$154.16	18% 3833-17376 (21209)
FO forgetfuldory<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$69.9	$68.61	-$1.29	— 5-5 (10)
BA badatthisCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$37.5	$30	-$7.5	65% 2235-1185 (3420)
OL ololololololololoCTR	Yesavg 11¢	$256.53	$27.98	-$223.85	35% 41-77 (118)
NadmiCTR	Yesavg 43¢	$519.3	$14.5	-$501.77	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
StupidMonkeyyyCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$25	$7.5	-$16.25	50% 147-145 (292)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR	Yesavg 44.8¢	$170.8	$4.62	-$166.17	51% 527-509 (1036)

TheReturnOfDarthMaul

Invested

$34,699.99

Value

$43.9K

PnL

+$9.2K

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

fed26

Invested

$1,051.02

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

—

7-7 (14)

Ahpo

Invested

$11,678.92

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$66.52

Record

87%

1622-251 (1873)

Debosnys

Invested

$793.39

Value

$808.03

PnL

+$17.11

Record

89%

1868-225 (2093)

nonkenny90

Invested

$616.56

Value

$721.52

PnL

+$107.16

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$484.51

Value

$491.51

PnL

+$7

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

2B9S

Invested

$17.4

Value

$171.04

PnL

+$154.16

Record

18%

3833-17376 (21209)

forgetfuldory<$100

Invested

$69.9

Value

$68.61

PnL

-$1.29

Record

—

5-5 (10)

badatthisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.5

Value

$30

PnL

-$7.5

Record

65%

2235-1185 (3420)

ololololololololoCTR

Yes

Invested

$256.53

Value

$27.98

PnL

-$223.85

Record

35%

41-77 (118)

NadmiCTR

Yes

Invested

$519.3

Value

$14.5

PnL

-$501.77

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

StupidMonkeyyyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$16.25

Record

50%

147-145 (292)

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR

Yes

Invested

$170.8

Value

$4.62

PnL

-$166.17

Record

51%

527-509 (1036)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.