Consensus PnL $125K · win rate 66% (1954–986, n=2940) · PM monthly #484 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$125.5K
Record
1954W / 986L
Win Rate
66.0%
of 2940 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#881
Source
PM monthly #484
Trades
585
Markets
3,442
Volume
$2.2M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 3 on the consensus side (33%)- Will Top Esports win Worlds 2026?Yes $1.1K · now 3¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Karmine Corp win Worlds 2026?Yes $450 · now 2¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
- Will LYON win Worlds 2026?Yes $206 · now 1¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
Specialties
2,970 settled consensus markets · held side won 67% at an average entry of 62¢- Esports
+6 pts
side won 69% of 2463 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +5%
- MMA
+7 pts
side won 58% of 227 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +5%
- NBA
+7 pts
side won 81% of 52 · avg entry 74¢
ROI −2%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 22% of 309)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 46% of 598)
- 50–70¢: 28%(won 68% of 832)
- 70¢ and up: 41%(won 88% of 1231)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.