Will Karmine Corp win Worlds 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.6K
$383.87
98.5¢ → 98¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Late
721h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FR frohp5CTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $98.28 | $450.11 | +$351.83 | 65% 1991-1068 (3059) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $475.21 | $396.61 | -$87.08 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $392.8 | $391.6 | -$0.6 | 50% 2582-2633 (5215) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 99.2¢ | $159.22 | $157.63 | -$1.59 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 enpirugbrptiCTR | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $33.98 | $155.33 | +$121.35 | 54% 3501-2966 (6467) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $7.17 | $7.13 | -$0.04 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
Invested
$98.28
Value
$450.11
PnL
+$351.83
Record
65%
1991-1068 (3059)
Invested
$475.21
Value
$396.61
PnL
-$87.08
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
Invested
$392.8
Value
$391.6
PnL
-$0.6
Record
50%
2582-2633 (5215)
Invested
$159.22
Value
$157.63
PnL
-$1.59
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
enpirugbrptiCTRInvested
$33.98
Value
$155.33
PnL
+$121.35
Record
54%
3501-2966 (6467)
Invested
$7.17
Value
$7.13
PnL
-$0.04
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.