Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 73¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$602.96

Smart Money Entry

28.4¢ → 73.2¢

+157% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,601

Combined PnL+$715.12

Yes4 traders

Total Value$128.22

Total Shares478

Combined PnL-$112.15

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (10 on No) and the top 1000 (1 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 1

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
paddaa	Noavg 28.3¢	$303.47	$783.72	+$480.25	56% 836-645 (1481)
Gohst	Noavg 18¢	$24.94	$101.36	+$76.42	49% 738-770 (1508)
TheKinginYellow<$100	Noavg 49.9¢	$56.61	$83.05	+$26.44	68% 830-398 (1228)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 11.4¢	$12.61	$81.2	+$68.59	18% 3833-17376 (21209)
randomWalkingShrimp<$100	Noavg 30¢	$30	$73.15	+$43.15	77% 1204-366 (1570)
AgricultureSecretaryCTR	Yesavg 54.6¢	$140.98	$69.36	-$71.62	83% 3802-802 (4604)
Chungvicular<$100	Noavg 44.5¢	$20.67	$34.26	+$13.59	46% 49-57 (106)
Barkshire-HathawayCTR<$100	Yesavg 48.3¢	$50.71	$28.19	-$22.52	64% 1093-623 (1716)
GA gatorrqwCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$40	$26.85	-$13.15	55% 170-139 (309)
ScottyNooo<$100	Noavg 34.7¢	$8.07	$14.75	+$6.69	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
IN insideroCTR<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$8.69	$3.82	-$4.86	76% 291-93 (384)

paddaa

Invested

$303.47

Value

$783.72

PnL

+$480.25

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

Gohst

Invested

$24.94

Value

$101.36

PnL

+$76.42

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

TheKinginYellow<$100

Invested

$56.61

Value

$83.05

PnL

+$26.44

Record

68%

830-398 (1228)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$12.61

Value

$81.2

PnL

+$68.59

Record

18%

3833-17376 (21209)

randomWalkingShrimp<$100

Invested

$30

Value

$73.15

PnL

+$43.15

Record

77%

1204-366 (1570)

AgricultureSecretaryCTR

Yes

Invested

$140.98

Value

$69.36

PnL

-$71.62

Record

83%

3802-802 (4604)

Chungvicular<$100

Invested

$20.67

Value

$34.26

PnL

+$13.59

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

Barkshire-HathawayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.71

Value

$28.19

PnL

-$22.52

Record

64%

1093-623 (1716)

gatorrqwCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40

Value

$26.85

PnL

-$13.15

Record

55%

170-139 (309)

ScottyNooo<$100

Invested

$8.07

Value

$14.75

PnL

+$6.69

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

insideroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.69

Value

$3.82

PnL

-$4.86

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (10 on No) and the top 1000 (1 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 1

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.9%

73.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.