Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 56%
$1.5K
-$168.32
79.3¢ → 98¢
+23% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
21 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SmallFishInWhaleStomach | Yesavg 99.7¢ | $728.59 | $716.35 | -$12.24 | 83% 123-26 (149) |
 Car | Yesavg 78.7¢ | $327.03 | $407.06 | +$80.03 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
GA gatorrqw | Yesavg 33.5¢ | $67 | $196 | +$129 | 55% 170-139 (309) |
 TBill1 | Yesavg 48.1¢ | $113.57 | $167.99 | +$54.43 | 45% 154-188 (342) |
TR troimCTR | Noavg 23.9¢ | $248.58 | $20 | -$228.58 | 36% 397-691 (1088) |
 Optimus-CTR | Noavg 40¢ | $200 | $10 | -$189.25 | 61% 1200-768 (1968) |
LE LetTheGoodTimesRoll<$100 | Yesavg 27.5¢ | $0.47 | $1.45 | +$0.97 | 45% 3592-4351 (7943) |
 ChungvicularCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $1.32 | $0.09 | -$1.22 | 46% 49-57 (106) |
 iutwpfalCTR<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $1.55 | $0.09 | -$1.46 | 57% 412-313 (725) |
SmallFishInWhaleStomachInvested
$728.59
Value
$716.35
PnL
-$12.24
Record
83%
123-26 (149)
CarInvested
$327.03
Value
$407.06
PnL
+$80.03
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
Invested
$67
Value
$196
PnL
+$129
Record
55%
170-139 (309)
TBill1Invested
$113.57
Value
$167.99
PnL
+$54.43
Record
45%
154-188 (342)
Invested
$248.58
Value
$20
PnL
-$228.58
Record
36%
397-691 (1088)
Optimus-CTRInvested
$200
Value
$10
PnL
-$189.25
Record
61%
1200-768 (1968)
Invested
$0.47
Value
$1.45
PnL
+$0.97
Record
45%
3592-4351 (7943)
ChungvicularCTR<$100Invested
$1.32
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$1.22
Record
46%
49-57 (106)
iutwpfalCTR<$100Invested
$1.55
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$1.46
Record
57%
412-313 (725)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.