Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$1.6K
$172.78
87.5¢ → 98¢
+12% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Late
1654h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PA pako | Noavg 89.9¢ | $920.03 | $1.0K | +$82.1 | 65% 250-132 (382) |
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul | Noavg 83.8¢ | $276.26 | $323.39 | +$47.14 | 63% 353-204 (557) |
HI hithitfar | Noavg 96.2¢ | $179.49 | $182.2 | +$2.71 | 58% 640-469 (1109) |
 Slowroasted<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $51.6 | $58.8 | +$7.2 | 88% 1990-279 (2269) |
GA gatorrqw<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $19.44 | $52.92 | +$33.48 | 55% 170-139 (309) |
 vinii<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $4.75 | $4.9 | +$0.16 | 74% 2792-1004 (3796) |
Invested
$920.03
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$82.1
Record
65%
250-132 (382)
Invested
$276.26
Value
$323.39
PnL
+$47.14
Record
63%
353-204 (557)
Invested
$179.49
Value
$182.2
PnL
+$2.71
Record
58%
640-469 (1109)
Slowroasted<$100Invested
$51.6
Value
$58.8
PnL
+$7.2
Record
88%
1990-279 (2269)
Invested
$19.44
Value
$52.92
PnL
+$33.48
Record
55%
170-139 (309)
vinii<$100Invested
$4.75
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0.16
Record
74%
2792-1004 (3796)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.