Back to Traders
FB
Consensus PnL -$135K · win rate 65% (17–9, n=26) · PM monthly #172 · holds 6 consensus positions
0xfbe66593...bfb800f8Polymarket
🐋Whale🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$-134.5K
Record
17W / 9L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 26 settled
Batting Avg
56.3%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#957
Source
PM monthly #172
Trades
283
Markets
39
Volume
$2.5M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 6 on the consensus side (83%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $95K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $16K · now 71¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (85% of 28)
- US recession by end of 2026?No $16K · now 95¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (96% of 27)
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes $3.5K · now 71¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (69% of 26)
- Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes $1.7K · now 72¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $245 · now 2¢ · in at 2¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
27 settled consensus markets · held side won 85% at an average entry of 80¢- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 87% of 15 · avg entry 82¢
ROI −8%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 22%(won 50% of 6)
- 70¢ and up: 74%(won 100% of 20)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.