Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 72¢ · $24K held · ends Dec 9

Yes72¢No28¢Ends Wed, Dec 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

Total Value

$24.4K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 72¢

+11% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 72%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$23.5K

Total Shares32,697

Combined PnL+$2.1K

No4 traders

Total Value$833.17

Total Shares2,971

Combined PnL-$996.44

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI simpleman	Yesavg 64.6¢	$16.9K	$18.9K	+$1.9K	47% 456-520 (976)
BR browne	Yesavg 67.8¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$130.74	71% 173-70 (243)
GA gaven-willwin	Yesavg 71¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$23.85	68% 19-9 (28)
betwickCTR	Noavg 71¢	$1.6K	$642.82	-$974.64	55% 353-292 (645)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 59.2¢	$410.63	$359.93	+$18.33	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 54.1¢	$272.99	$272.75	-$0.24	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR	Noavg 34.5¢	$146.81	$156.5	+$9.69	39% 175-269 (444)
CD CDAP1<$100	Yesavg 76.8¢	$65.61	$61.99	-$3.62	30% 11-26 (37)
perfectnostalgia<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$4.68	$37.43	+$32.75	55% 338-273 (611)
debasedCTR<$100	Noavg 56¢	$64.2	$32.1	-$32.1	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
FO forgetfuldoryCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$1.13	$1.75	+$0.62	— 5-5 (10)

simpleman

Yes

Invested

$16,946.35

Value

$18.9K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

47%

456-520 (976)

browne

Yes

Invested

$2,086.36

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$130.74

Record

71%

173-70 (243)

gaven-willwin

Yes

Invested

$1,693.62

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$23.85

Record

68%

19-9 (28)

betwickCTR

Invested

$1,628.95

Value

$642.82

PnL

-$974.64

Record

55%

353-292 (645)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$410.63

Value

$359.93

PnL

+$18.33

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$272.99

Value

$272.75

PnL

-$0.24

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR

Invested

$146.81

Value

$156.5

PnL

+$9.69

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

CDAP1<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.61

Value

$61.99

PnL

-$3.62

Record

30%

11-26 (37)

perfectnostalgia<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.68

Value

$37.43

PnL

+$32.75

Record

55%

338-273 (611)

debasedCTR<$100

Invested

$64.2

Value

$32.1

PnL

-$32.1

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

forgetfuldoryCTR<$100

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.62

Record

—

5-5 (10)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 72%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.