Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on November 3?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $95 held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$94.65
$1.5
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $79.75 | $38.39 | +$1.26 | 58% 18597-13721 (32318) |
LE LesterDiamond<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $29.73 | $29.99 | +$0.18 | 62% 5596-3462 (9058) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.99 | +$0.05 | 54% 22035-19135 (41170) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 15.3¢ | $6.28 | $6.29 | +$0.01 | 55% 4330-3516 (7846) |
Invested
$79.75
Value
$38.39
PnL
+$1.26
Record
58%
18597-13721 (32318)
Invested
$29.73
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.18
Record
62%
5596-3462 (9058)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$0.05
Record
54%
22035-19135 (41170)
Invested
$6.28
Value
$6.29
PnL
+$0.01
Record
55%
4330-3516 (7846)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.