Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?

13 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (68%) · No at 83¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 68%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$472.3

Smart Money Entry

79.1¢ → 82.5¢

+4% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 19 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,833

Combined PnL+$244.31

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares5,967

Combined PnL+$228

No — 68%Yes — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

402h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 85.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$17.09	54% 22028-19125 (41153)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 75.9¢	$714.66	$676.69	+$39.62	35% 17549-32799 (50348)
└ No leg	Noavg 75.9¢	$492.3	$535.17	+$2.69
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19.2¢	$155.14	$141.51	+$36.94
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 79.5¢	$123.11	$617.09	+$30.58	71% 6981-2790 (9771)
AL Albert 1953CTR	Yesavg 14¢	$419.89	$571.05	+$151.16	50% 1097-1104 (2201)
Lucerys	Noavg 87.7¢	$543.11	$510.72	-$32.38	79% 11953-3142 (15095)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 85.6¢	$467.6	$371.45	+$9.11	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
GO god83743894	Noavg 45.1¢	$123.59	$205.1	+$109.67	46% 10069-11760 (21829)
AN anoin123CTR	Yesavg 14¢	$123.39	$182.41	+$59.01	47% 484-550 (1034)
LP lpgb	Noavg 83.6¢	$217.95	$173.78	-$2.36	24% 302-942 (1244)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR	Yesavg 17¢	$170	$170	-$15	49% 788-810 (1598)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 4.9¢	$6.44	$109.43	+$102.99	47% 1602-1786 (3388)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 84.5¢	$91.46	$84.1	+$42.7	72% 8571-3391 (11962)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yes	$60.63	$60.63	+$41.61	73% 12604-4594 (17198)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 83.7¢	$50.64	$50.51	-$0.13	58% 18577-13713 (32290)
fkpaCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.4¢	$19.15	$15.55	-$3.6	— 1-0 (1)
PI piepedCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$19.02	$14.7	-$5.19	41% 80-113 (193)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 82¢	$13.3	$6.96	+$0.41	40% 980-1494 (2474)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 83.1¢	$10.38	$6.91	+$0.41	43% 1325-1779 (3104)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 80¢	$6.51	$6.72	+$0.2	40% 2066-3096 (5162)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 80¢	$6.42	$6.62	+$0.2	47% 2044-2320 (4364)

cigarettes

Invested

$1,121.88

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$17.09

Record

54%

22028-19125 (41153)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$714.66

Value

$676.69

PnL

+$39.62

Record

35%

17549-32799 (50348)

Both legs:

No$492.375.9¢+$2.69

Yes$155.1419.2¢+$36.94

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$123.11

Value

$617.09

PnL

+$30.58

Record

71%

6981-2790 (9771)

Albert 1953CTR

Yes

Invested

$419.89

Value

$571.05

PnL

+$151.16

Record

50%

1097-1104 (2201)

Lucerys

Invested

$543.11

Value

$510.72

PnL

-$32.38

Record

79%

11953-3142 (15095)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$467.6

Value

$371.45

PnL

+$9.11

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

god83743894

Invested

$123.59

Value

$205.1

PnL

+$109.67

Record

46%

10069-11760 (21829)

anoin123CTR

Yes

Invested

$123.39

Value

$182.41

PnL

+$59.01

Record

47%

484-550 (1034)

lpgb

Invested

$217.95

Value

$173.78

PnL

-$2.36

Record

24%

302-942 (1244)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR

Yes

Invested

$170

Value

$170

PnL

-$15

Record

49%

788-810 (1598)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$6.44

Value

$109.43

PnL

+$102.99

Record

47%

1602-1786 (3388)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$91.46

Value

$84.1

PnL

+$42.7

Record

72%

8571-3391 (11962)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.63

Value

$60.63

PnL

+$41.61

Record

73%

12604-4594 (17198)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$50.64

Value

$50.51

PnL

-$0.13

Record

58%

18577-13713 (32290)

fkpaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.15

Value

$15.55

PnL

-$3.6

Record

—

1-0 (1)

piepedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.02

Value

$14.7

PnL

-$5.19

Record

41%

80-113 (193)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$13.3

Value

$6.96

PnL

+$0.41

Record

40%

980-1494 (2474)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$10.38

Value

$6.91

PnL

+$0.41

Record

43%

1325-1779 (3104)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$6.51

Value

$6.72

PnL

+$0.2

Record

40%

2066-3096 (5162)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$6.42

Value

$6.62

PnL

+$0.2

Record

47%

2044-2320 (4364)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 19 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

402h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.1%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.