Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$352.8

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 98.6¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$988.89

Total Shares1,002

Combined PnL+$20.53

Yes5 traders

Total Value$377.5

Total Shares26,821

Combined PnL-$373.32

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

499h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
classified	Noavg 96¢	$948.38	$968.28	+$19.9	58% 843-614 (1457)
PI piepedARB<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$213.08	$354.35	-$359.25	42% 71-100 (171)
└ No leg	Noavg 96.1¢	$192.2	$197.3	+$5.1
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 4.6¢	$516.01	$157.05	-$364.35
CarCTR	Yesavg 3.5¢	$159.27	$105.99	-$53.28	67% 4164-2026 (6190)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 3.5¢	$260.28	$102.64	-$157.63	36% 190-333 (523)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$57.63	$58.17	+$0.54	38% 20-32 (52)
betwickCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$70.9	$55.65	-$9.29	55% 352-292 (644)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 5.3¢	$230.25	$55.05	-$153.66	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$15.35	$15.71	+$0.36	32% 4493-9634 (14127)
GG GGLPL<$100	Noavg 93¢	$4.64	$4.91	+$0.27	50% 697-693 (1390)

classified

Invested

$948.38

Value

$968.28

PnL

+$19.9

Record

58%

843-614 (1457)

piepedARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$213.08

Value

$354.35

PnL

-$359.25

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

Both legs:

No$192.296.1¢+$5.1

Yes$516.014.6¢-$364.35

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$159.27

Value

$105.99

PnL

-$53.28

Record

67%

4164-2026 (6190)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$260.28

Value

$102.64

PnL

-$157.63

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.63

Value

$58.17

PnL

+$0.54

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

betwickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.9

Value

$55.65

PnL

-$9.29

Record

55%

352-292 (644)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$230.25

Value

$55.05

PnL

-$153.66

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$15.35

Value

$15.71

PnL

+$0.36

Record

32%

4493-9634 (14127)

GGLPL<$100

Invested

$4.64

Value

$4.91

PnL

+$0.27

Record

50%

697-693 (1390)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

499h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.