Consensus PnL $182K · win rate 54% (519–442, n=961) · PM monthly #316 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$182.2K
Record
519W / 442L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 961 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1501
Source
PM monthly #316
Trades
178
Markets
1,019
Volume
$2.6M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 5 on the consensus side (40%)- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group AHeroic $5.0K · now 62¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (56% of 16)
- LoL: Dplus KIA vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - Worlds PlayoffsDplus KIA $1.3K · now 42¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (Bilibili Gaming)
- Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs BARCA (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance PlayoffsBARCA $1.1K · now 41¢ · in at 40¢against the consensus (Wildcard)
- Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B9z $8 · now 37¢ · in at 35¢against the consensus (BetBoom Team)
- Counter-Strike: DENDELE CS vs Imperial (BO5) - Gamers Club Masters PlayoffsImperial $7 · now 42¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Specialties
774 settled consensus markets · held side won 67% at an average entry of 51¢- Esports
+16 pts
side won 67% of 754 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +19%
- Soccer
+5 pts
side won 50% of 18 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +9%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 45% of 33)
- 30–50¢: 41%(won 58% of 320)
- 50–70¢: 47%(won 73% of 367)
- 70¢ and up: 7%(won 93% of 54)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.