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17
Consensus PnL $120K · win rate 96% (23–1, n=24) · was PM monthly #944 · holds 4 consensus positions
0x17e313bb...0eaf9ba5Polymarket
⚖️Arb🎯Sharp🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$120.3K
Record
23W / 1L
Win Rate
96.0%
of 24 settled
Batting Avg
87.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#147
Source
PM monthly #944
Trades
61
Markets
52
Volume
$1.4M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 4 on the consensus side (100%)- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?No $100K · now 100¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (59% of 22)
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No $57K · now 94¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No $53K · now 89¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (55% of 38)
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?No $31K · now 94¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (55% of 11)
Specialties
25 settled consensus markets · held side won 96% at an average entry of 91¢- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 96% of 24 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +9%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 96%(won 100% of 24)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.