Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?

13 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (59%) · No at 100¢ · $163K held · ended Nov 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 59%

Total Value

$162.8K

Combined PnL

-$254.02

Smart Money Entry

89.9¢ → 99.7¢

+11% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 22 top traders (59%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$162.0K

Total Shares162,469

Combined PnL+$15.7K

Yes9 traders

Total Value$814.15

Total Shares203,538

Combined PnL$-15.9K

No — 59%Yes — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

1510h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

59% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (12 on Yes) and the top 1000 (15 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 90% · 10

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HY hymolu	Noavg 87.6¢	$87.6K	$99.7K	+$12.1K	74% 29-10 (39)
TH thoodr	Noavg 93.9¢	$27.8K	$29.5K	+$1.7K	96% 631-24 (655)
JE Jest55	Noavg 92.1¢	$6.5K	$7.1K	+$528.59	75% 1028-338 (1366)
0X 0x3fd0190eb137e335db080b9855f90c86849f0022	Noavg 94.8¢	$6.5K	$6.8K	+$333.84	73% 160-59 (219)
PA Paul973973	Noavg 96¢	$5.0K	$5.2K	+$192.71	89% 923-118 (1041)
classified	Noavg 90.3¢	$4.9K	$5.2K	+$301.41	58% 844-614 (1458)
Debosnys	Noavg 98.9¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	+$23.91	89% 1868-225 (2093)
-Yang-	Noavg 89.7¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$200	82% 275-61 (336)
tetrase	Noavg 94¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$112.84	61% 839-544 (1383)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 92.2¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$109.36	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 8.2¢	$11.5K	$583.07	$-11.0K	56% 973-770 (1743)
betwickCTR	Yesavg 9¢	$3.0K	$131.71	$-2.9K	55% 353-292 (645)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$90.55	$92.78	+$2.23	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
NO nonkenny90<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$79.2	$83.75	+$4.55	89% 4653-547 (5200)
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960<$100	Noavg 86¢	$43.07	$49.93	+$6.86	63% 166-99 (265)
WongKimArkCTR	Yesavg 8¢	$800	$40	-$770	63% 217-127 (344)
0x8712CTR	Yesavg 10¢	$400	$16	-$388	30% 102-237 (339)
CunglyCTR	Yesavg 12.1¢	$196.63	$10.69	-$185.94	63% 672-398 (1070)
tjaCTR	Yesavg 13.3¢	$318	$9.6	-$310.79	73% 867-323 (1190)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 6¢	$133.32	$8.89	-$126.65	68% 2074-958 (3032)
BA badatthisCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$28.23	$8.58	-$19.64	65% 2235-1185 (3420)
Optimus-CTR	Yesavg 21.7¢	$304	$5.6	-$299.8	61% 1200-768 (1968)

hymolu

Invested

$87,559.98

Value

$99.7K

PnL

+$12.1K

Record

74%

29-10 (39)

thoodr

Invested

$27,781.58

Value

$29.5K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

Jest55

Invested

$6,529.37

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$528.59

Record

75%

1028-338 (1366)

0x3fd0190eb137e335db080b9855f90c86849f0022

Invested

$6,458.85

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$333.84

Record

73%

160-59 (219)

Paul973973

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$192.71

Record

89%

923-118 (1041)

classified

Invested

$4,850.78

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$301.41

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

Debosnys

Invested

$3,076.63

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$23.91

Record

89%

1868-225 (2093)

-Yang-

Invested

$1,794

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$200

Record

82%

275-61 (336)

tetrase

Invested

$1,860.9

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$112.84

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,441.97

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$109.36

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$11,540.34

Value

$583.07

PnL

$-11.0K

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

betwickCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,963.57

Value

$131.71

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

55%

353-292 (645)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$90.55

Value

$92.78

PnL

+$2.23

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

nonkenny90<$100

Invested

$79.2

Value

$83.75

PnL

+$4.55

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960<$100

Invested

$43.07

Value

$49.93

PnL

+$6.86

Record

63%

166-99 (265)

WongKimArkCTR

Yes

Invested

$800

Value

$40

PnL

-$770

Record

63%

217-127 (344)

0x8712CTR

Yes

Invested

$400

Value

$16

PnL

-$388

Record

30%

102-237 (339)

CunglyCTR

Yes

Invested

$196.63

Value

$10.69

PnL

-$185.94

Record

63%

672-398 (1070)

tjaCTR

Yes

Invested

$318

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$310.79

Record

73%

867-323 (1190)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$133.32

Value

$8.89

PnL

-$126.65

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

badatthisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.23

Value

$8.58

PnL

-$19.64

Record

65%

2235-1185 (3420)

Optimus-CTR

Yes

Invested

$304

Value

$5.6

PnL

-$299.8

Record

61%

1200-768 (1968)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

13 of 22 top traders (59%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

1510h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

59% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (12 on Yes) and the top 1000 (15 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 90% · 10

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.