Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 95¢ · $35K held · ends Dec 1

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$35.4K

Combined PnL

$859.9

Smart Money Entry

89.8¢ → 94.5¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$34.1K

Total Shares36,100

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares24,093

Combined PnL-$829.21

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

455h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HY hymolu	Noavg 89.8¢	$29.2K	$30.7K	+$1.5K	74% 29-10 (39)
Tigerofthehood	Noavg 88¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$116.73	87% 179-26 (205)
TH thoodr	Noavg 95¢	$950	$945	-$5	96% 631-24 (655)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 10¢	$1.3K	$713.14	-$583.48	36% 190-333 (523)
-Yang-	Noavg 89¢	$445	$472.5	+$25	82% 275-61 (336)
GayPrideCTR	Yesavg 7.6¢	$446.67	$297.98	-$148.69	49% 357-367 (724)
Udonsan	Noavg 89¢	$233.77	$248.21	+$14.45	79% 250-67 (317)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 6.8¢	$270.27	$237.16	-$33.11	56% 973-770 (1743)
CunglyCTR	Yesavg 10.2¢	$133	$71.5	-$61.5	63% 672-398 (1070)
AL alwaysOn<$100	Noavg 92¢	$46	$47.25	+$1	77% 632-185 (817)
BA badatthisCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$7.78	$5.35	-$2.43	65% 2235-1185 (3420)

hymolu

Invested

$29,167.86

Value

$30.7K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

74%

29-10 (39)

Tigerofthehood

Invested

$1,580.4

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$116.73

Record

87%

179-26 (205)

thoodr

Invested

$950

Value

$945

PnL

-$5

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,296.62

Value

$713.14

PnL

-$583.48

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

-Yang-

Invested

$445

Value

$472.5

PnL

+$25

Record

82%

275-61 (336)

GayPrideCTR

Yes

Invested

$446.67

Value

$297.98

PnL

-$148.69

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

Udonsan

Invested

$233.77

Value

$248.21

PnL

+$14.45

Record

79%

250-67 (317)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$270.27

Value

$237.16

PnL

-$33.11

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

CunglyCTR

Yes

Invested

$133

Value

$71.5

PnL

-$61.5

Record

63%

672-398 (1070)

alwaysOn<$100

Invested

$46

Value

$47.25

PnL

+$1

Record

77%

632-185 (817)

badatthisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.78

Value

$5.35

PnL

-$2.43

Record

65%

2235-1185 (3420)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

455h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.