Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?

17 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 94¢ · $346K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$346.4K

Combined PnL

$2.6K

Smart Money Entry

93.2¢ → 93.5¢

+0% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 94%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 20 top traders (85%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$338.2K

Total Shares362,450

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares125,445

Combined PnL+$549.2

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

2193h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 14

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 91% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stupid22	Noavg 93.7¢	$284.1K	$216.1K	+$456.41	94% 412-26 (438)
HY hymolu	Noavg 91.9¢	$56.3K	$57.0K	+$957.36	74% 29-10 (39)
eCash	Noavg 92.4¢	$24.0K	$24.2K	+$298.22	68% 331-155 (486)
TH thoodr	Noavg 94¢	$14.1K	$13.9K	-$75	96% 631-24 (655)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 6¢	$6.6K	$7.2K	+$551.08	35% 35-65 (100)
TE TerreMoto	Noavg 92.4¢	$6.6K	$6.6K	+$75.28	80% 168-42 (210)
Talophex	Noavg 91.6¢	$5.8K	$5.9K	+$99.72	91% 929-95 (1024)
KE kevtp	Noavg 92.8¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$17.5	80% 227-58 (285)
AV Avamax	Noavg 92.4¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	+$49.35	81% 421-101 (522)
AyatollahDollar	Noavg 91.2¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$69.84	86% 51-8 (59)
HU hugecaulkCTR	Yesavg 6.5¢	$985.21	$982.81	-$2.4	— 2-12 (14)
AL alwaysOn	Noavg 93¢	$930	$930	+$5	77% 632-185 (817)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 90.9¢	$845.59	$870.17	+$24.58	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
PMTraderAdam	Noavg 91¢	$637	$651	+$17.5	77% 830-249 (1079)
ME melonmanm	Noavg 91¢	$136.5	$139.5	+$3.75	65% 527-282 (809)
PU PutsOnPeace<$100	Noavg 88.5¢	$90.5	$93	+$2.5	66% 955-482 (1437)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$79.71	$80.66	+$0.95	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
tetrase<$100	Noavg 91.9¢	$59.74	$60.44	+$1.03	61% 839-544 (1383)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	$10.66	$11.18	+$0.52	59% 986-684 (1670)
NO nonkenny90<$100	Noavg 91¢	$10.12	$10.34	+$0.28	89% 4653-547 (5200)

stupid22

Invested

$284,138.44

Value

$216.1K

PnL

+$456.41

Record

94%

412-26 (438)

hymolu

Invested

$56,330.96

Value

$57.0K

PnL

+$957.36

Record

74%

29-10 (39)

eCash

Invested

$24,011.82

Value

$24.2K

PnL

+$298.22

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

thoodr

Invested

$14,100

Value

$13.9K

PnL

-$75

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,612.94

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$551.08

Record

35%

35-65 (100)

TerreMoto

Invested

$6,556.33

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$75.28

Record

80%

168-42 (210)

Talophex

Invested

$5,814.26

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$99.72

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

kevtp

Invested

$4,632.5

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$17.5

Record

80%

227-58 (285)

Avamax

Invested

$4,087

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$49.35

Record

81%

421-101 (522)

AyatollahDollar

Invested

$2,807.95

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$69.84

Record

86%

51-8 (59)

hugecaulkCTR

Yes

Invested

$985.21

Value

$982.81

PnL

-$2.4

Record

—

2-12 (14)

alwaysOn

Invested

$930

Value

$930

PnL

+$5

Record

77%

632-185 (817)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$845.59

Value

$870.17

PnL

+$24.58

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

PMTraderAdam

Invested

$637

Value

$651

PnL

+$17.5

Record

77%

830-249 (1079)

melonmanm

Invested

$136.5

Value

$139.5

PnL

+$3.75

Record

65%

527-282 (809)

PutsOnPeace<$100

Invested

$90.5

Value

$93

PnL

+$2.5

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$79.71

Value

$80.66

PnL

+$0.95

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

tetrase<$100

Invested

$59.74

Value

$60.44

PnL

+$1.03

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

PaddyAlphaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.66

Value

$11.18

PnL

+$0.52

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

nonkenny90<$100

Invested

$10.12

Value

$10.34

PnL

+$0.28

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 94%

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 20 top traders (85%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

2193h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 14

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 91% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.