Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

21 of 38 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 89¢ · $449K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$449.2K

Combined PnL

$9.3K

Smart Money Entry

81.3¢ → 88.5¢

+9% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 38 top traders (55%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No21 traders

Total Value$405.1K

Total Shares457,685

Combined PnL+$32.8K

Yes17 traders

Total Value$44.1K

Total Shares389,871

Combined PnL$-23.5K

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Late

2601h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 56% · 16

Aligned

sharpNo 84% · 19

Aligned

ctrYes 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 24

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 27

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VO Votei14Voude22	Noavg 82.5¢	$68.9K	$73.9K	+$5.0K	78% 342-99 (441)
65 65765757	Noavg 80.4¢	$66.2K	$72.9K	+$6.7K	79% 277-74 (351)
HY hymolu	Noavg 82.5¢	$49.5K	$53.1K	+$3.6K	74% 29-10 (39)
AN anoin123	Noavg 75.9¢	$33.7K	$39.2K	+$5.6K	47% 476-535 (1011)
mr.ozi	Noavg 83.1¢	$33.2K	$35.4K	+$2.2K	68% 1240-582 (1822)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 17.8¢	$47.3K	$28.1K	$-14.7K	56% 973-770 (1743)
KE Kevindoto	Noavg 81.9¢	$24.6K	$26.6K	+$2.0K	80% 437-110 (547)
Tigerofthehood	Noavg 80.6¢	$20.8K	$22.8K	+$2.0K	87% 179-26 (205)
Udonsan	Noavg 82.6¢	$14.7K	$15.6K	+$850.22	79% 250-67 (317)
AP apmt	Noavg 79.4¢	$11.3K	$12.6K	+$1.3K	74% 64-22 (86)
Valen9	Noavg 79.7¢	$10.1K	$11.2K	+$1.1K	60% 407-274 (681)
0xheavy888	Noavg 83¢	$8.3K	$8.8K	+$550	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
FO forinnerpsandr1x11222	Noavg 82.9¢	$8.3K	$8.8K	+$560.15	88% 212-28 (240)
LU LulaVaiPerder	Noavg 84.3¢	$8.0K	$8.4K	+$380.2	76% 318-102 (420)
GayPrideCTR	Yesavg 15.8¢	$10.4K	$7.2K	$-2.8K	49% 357-367 (724)
SK skibabiba	Noavg 85¢	$5.1K	$5.3K	+$210	87% 95-14 (109)
-Yang-	Noavg 78.4¢	$3.1K	$3.5K	+$396.49	82% 275-61 (336)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 18¢	$3.4K	$2.2K	$-1.2K	40% 704-1062 (1766)
AL alwaysOn	Noavg 80.7¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$169.34	77% 632-185 (817)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 15.6¢	$2.4K	$1.8K	-$662.99	36% 190-333 (523)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 84.4¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$63.25	89% 4653-547 (5200)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 81.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$92.94	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
CO cocococococo	Noavg 83.2¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$71.1	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
betwickCTR	Yesavg 18.9¢	$1.9K	$1.1K	-$737.67	55% 353-292 (645)
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960	Noavg 85¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$42	63% 166-99 (265)

Votei14Voude22

Invested

$68,890.27

Value

$73.9K

PnL

+$5.0K

Record

78%

342-99 (441)

65765757

Invested

$66,196.77

Value

$72.9K

PnL

+$6.7K

Record

79%

277-74 (351)

hymolu

Invested

$49,500

Value

$53.1K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

74%

29-10 (39)

anoin123

Invested

$33,659.18

Value

$39.2K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

mr.ozi

Invested

$33,236.12

Value

$35.4K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

68%

1240-582 (1822)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$47,348.33

Value

$28.1K

PnL

$-14.7K

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

Kevindoto

Invested

$24,567.55

Value

$26.6K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

80%

437-110 (547)

Tigerofthehood

Invested

$20,800.95

Value

$22.8K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

87%

179-26 (205)

Udonsan

Invested

$14,718.98

Value

$15.6K

PnL

+$850.22

Record

79%

250-67 (317)

apmt

Invested

$11,271.99

Value

$12.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

74%

64-22 (86)

Valen9

Invested

$10,079.53

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

60%

407-274 (681)

0xheavy888

Invested

$8,300

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$550

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

forinnerpsandr1x11222

Invested

$8,289.86

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$560.15

Record

88%

212-28 (240)

LulaVaiPerder

Invested

$8,024.5

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$380.2

Record

76%

318-102 (420)

GayPrideCTR

Yes

Invested

$10,363.87

Value

$7.2K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

skibabiba

Invested

$5,100

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$210

Record

87%

95-14 (109)

-Yang-

Invested

$3,080.16

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$396.49

Record

82%

275-61 (336)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,427.55

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

40%

704-1062 (1766)

alwaysOn

Invested

$1,754.12

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$169.34

Record

77%

632-185 (817)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,438.06

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$662.99

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

nonkenny90

Invested

$1,308.5

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$63.25

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,103.73

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$92.94

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

cocococococo

Invested

$1,108.61

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$71.1

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

betwickCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,877.08

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$737.67

Record

55%

353-292 (645)

0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960

Invested

$1,020

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$42

Record

63%

166-99 (265)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 38 top traders (55%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Late

2601h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 56% · 16

Aligned

sharpNo 84% · 19

Aligned

ctrYes 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 24

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 27

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.