Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 98¢ · $33K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$33.3K

Combined PnL

$3.6K

Smart Money Entry

89.6¢ → 97.5¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$32.8K

Total Shares38,013

Combined PnL+$5.4K

No2 traders

Total Value$446.34

Total Shares15,661

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

3723h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TP tphhh	Yesavg 99.9¢	$22.8K	$22.1K	-$689.95	91% 631-60 (691)
DO Dokkl	Yes	$5.5K	$5.5K	+$3.1K	— 2-1 (3)
-Yang-	Yesavg 36.1¢	$1.2K	$4.0K	+$2.8K	82% 275-61 (336)
AllByMyseIf	Yesavg 78¢	$526.9	$679.18	+$152.29	65% 671-357 (1028)
yen4uCTR	Noavg 14.3¢	$2.2K	$441.07	$-1.8K	86% 809-136 (945)
JI jiafan	Yes	$417.96	$346	-$122.56	59% 1460-1019 (2479)
Xeny<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$76.08	$96.62	+$20.54	60% 978-662 (1640)
esports095<$100	Yesavg 65.1¢	$75.19	$89.75	+$14.56	58% 651-467 (1118)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100	Yesavg 55.8¢	$20.02	$40.66	+$20.64	50% 357-357 (714)
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100	Noavg 1¢	$2.22	$5.27	+$3.05	69% 404-180 (584)

tphhh

Yes

Invested

$22,750.44

Value

$22.1K

PnL

-$689.95

Record

91%

631-60 (691)

Dokkl

Yes

Invested

$5,467.62

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

—

2-1 (3)

-Yang-

Yes

Invested

$1,182.89

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

82%

275-61 (336)

AllByMyseIf

Yes

Invested

$526.9

Value

$679.18

PnL

+$152.29

Record

65%

671-357 (1028)

yen4uCTR

Invested

$2,217.29

Value

$441.07

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

86%

809-136 (945)

jiafan

Yes

Invested

$417.96

Value

$346

PnL

-$122.56

Record

59%

1460-1019 (2479)

Xeny<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.08

Value

$96.62

PnL

+$20.54

Record

60%

978-662 (1640)

esports095<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.19

Value

$89.75

PnL

+$14.56

Record

58%

651-467 (1118)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.02

Value

$40.66

PnL

+$20.64

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100

Invested

$2.22

Value

$5.27

PnL

+$3.05

Record

69%

404-180 (584)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

3723h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.