Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (79%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 21¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 16
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 75%
$4.1K
-$933.67
22.9¢ → 21.4¢
-6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 79%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Late
129h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Parz1vaICTR | Noavg 22.7¢ | $1.9K | $1.6K | -$452.18 | 72% 3507-1334 (4841) |
TR troimCTR | Noavg 24.6¢ | $982.85 | $839.93 | -$202.9 | 36% 397-691 (1088) |
TP tphhh | Yesavg 98.2¢ | $1.1K | $761.42 | -$229.02 | 91% 631-60 (691) |
NO nonkenny90CTR | Noavg 17.3¢ | $453.36 | $485.5 | +$32.14 | 89% 4653-547 (5200) |
JI jiafanCTR | Noavg 31.3¢ | $359.94 | $241.56 | -$104.58 | 59% 1460-1019 (2479) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 84.4¢ | $146.42 | $167.19 | +$20.77 | 36% 16072-28083 (44155) |
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100 | Noavg 6.3¢ | $1.23 | $3.61 | +$2.38 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Noavg 22.2¢ | $1.73 | $1.44 | -$0.29 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
Parz1vaICTRInvested
$1,860.34
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$452.18
Record
72%
3507-1334 (4841)
Invested
$982.85
Value
$839.93
PnL
-$202.9
Record
36%
397-691 (1088)
Invested
$1,054.88
Value
$761.42
PnL
-$229.02
Record
91%
631-60 (691)
Invested
$453.36
Value
$485.5
PnL
+$32.14
Record
89%
4653-547 (5200)
Invested
$359.94
Value
$241.56
PnL
-$104.58
Record
59%
1460-1019 (2479)
Invested
$146.42
Value
$167.19
PnL
+$20.77
Record
36%
16072-28083 (44155)
Invested
$1.23
Value
$3.61
PnL
+$2.38
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
Invested
$1.73
Value
$1.44
PnL
-$0.29
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.