Taipei: Joel Schwaerzler vs Jan Kumstat

19 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Jan Kumstat (76%) · Jan Kumstat at 61¢ · $58K held · ends Nov 9

Joel Schwaerzler40¢Jan Kumstat60¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jan Kumstat

Consensus Traders

Jan Kumstat 76%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$58.1K

Combined PnL

$12.0K

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 60.5¢

+6% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralJan Kumstat at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jan Kumstat

19 of 25 top traders (76%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Joel Schwaerzler40%

Jan Kumstat61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Joel Schwaerzler6 traders

Total Value$35.1K

Total Shares51,208

Combined PnL+$14.6K

Jan Kumstat19 traders

Total Value$22.0K

Total Shares42,141

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Joel Schwaerzler — 24%Jan Kumstat — 76%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Jan Kumstat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Joel Schwaerzler) and the top 1000 (14 on Jan Kumstat) disagree here.

whaleJan Kumstat 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrJan Kumstat 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedJoel Schwaerzler 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Jan Kumstat 71% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xF8164A94e27CdCeD0cC975e21308fB099B2D0433-1772692168144CTR	Joel Schwaerzleravg 39.5¢	$19.0K	$33.2K	+$14.2K	38% 162-261 (423)
RN1	Jan Kumstatavg 58.4¢	$10.5K	$11.8K	+$1.3K	54% 58116-50356 (108472)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Jan Kumstatavg 61.7¢	$4.6K	$2.4K	$-2.2K	52% 5698-5265 (10963)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Jan Kumstatavg 49¢	$3.3K	$2.1K	$-1.2K	38% 512-818 (1330)
UP UpTheBlues	Jan Kumstatavg 56.5¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$151.29	58% 48499-34661 (83160)
38 38791873984189	Jan Kumstatavg 58.5¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$78.93	47% 12972-14546 (27518)
VeryLucky888CTR	Joel Schwaerzleravg 51.2¢	$3.2K	$1.0K	+$348.11	58% 43592-31705 (75297)
NO NotJump	Jan Kumstatavg 55.6¢	$658.4	$743.61	+$85.2	42% 7723-10451 (18174)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Jan Kumstatavg 61.1¢	$636.44	$621.22	-$15.22	51% 17604-16613 (34217)
└ Jan Kumstat leg	Jan Kumstatavg 61.1¢	$505.4	$459.24	-$46.16
└ Joel Schwaerzler leg	Joel Schwaerzleravg 51¢	$185.64	$161.98	+$30.94
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Jan Kumstatavg 64.8¢	$985.3	$471.2	-$514.1	51% 1591-1531 (3122)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR	Joel Schwaerzleravg 64¢	$375	$404.28	+$29.28	57% 230-176 (406)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Jan Kumstatavg 43.3¢	$284.85	$358.93	+$74.08	48% 1150-1258 (2408)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Jan Kumstatavg 51.8¢	$393.62	$322.23	+$37.74	53% 676-604 (1280)
└ Jan Kumstat leg	Jan Kumstatavg 51.8¢	$165.42	$190.05	+$46.7
└ Joel Schwaerzler leg	Joel Schwaerzleravg 43.2¢	$141.14	$132.18	-$8.96
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18CTR	Joel Schwaerzleravg 34¢	$257.57	$261.36	+$3.79	66% 582-303 (885)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Joel Schwaerzleravg 50.8¢	$128.73	$174.87	+$46.14	46% 9226-10934 (20160)
TRCM	Jan Kumstatavg 37¢	$137.5	$155	+$17.5	55% 3973-3204 (7177)
EU Eulhunter	Jan Kumstatavg 56.9¢	$244.24	$133.08	-$111.16	54% 5902-4952 (10854)
poshposh	Jan Kumstatavg 61¢	$183	$93	-$90	58% 11423-8278 (19701)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Jan Kumstatavg 57.9¢	$91.95	$86.8	-$5.15	52% 14024-12784 (26808)
└ Joel Schwaerzler leg	Joel Schwaerzleravg 32.6¢	$23.72	$50.27	+$26.55
└ Jan Kumstat leg	Jan Kumstatavg 57.9¢	$68.23	$36.53	-$31.7
TH thestingsnake<$100	Jan Kumstatavg 55.2¢	$96.19	$45.62	-$35.74	60% 4144-2783 (6927)
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100	Joel Schwaerzleravg 53¢	$33.35	$43.41	+$4.09	53% 8070-7281 (15351)
LR lryyy<$100	Jan Kumstatavg 60¢	$52.8	$27.28	-$25.52	46% 7927-9248 (17175)
0xheavy888<$100	Jan Kumstatavg 49¢	$19.35	$15.99	-$3.36	56% 7456-5978 (13434)
CI cigarettes<$100	Jan Kumstatavg 61¢	$30.5	$15.5	-$15	56% 18363-14703 (33066)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Jan Kumstatavg 31¢	$7.37	$7.37	+$0	47% 10050-11152 (21202)

0xF8164A94e27CdCeD0cC975e21308fB099B2D0433-1772692168144CTR

Joel Schwaerzler

Invested

$19,000

Value

$33.2K

PnL

+$14.2K

Record

38%

162-261 (423)

RN1

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$10,501.89

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

54%

58116-50356 (108472)

CandleHammerDrums

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$4,599.57

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

52%

5698-5265 (10963)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$3,298

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

38%

512-818 (1330)

UpTheBlues

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$1,758.39

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$151.29

Record

58%

48499-34661 (83160)

38791873984189

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$1,809.7

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$78.93

Record

47%

12972-14546 (27518)

VeryLucky888CTR

Joel Schwaerzler

Invested

$3,153.86

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$348.11

Record

58%

43592-31705 (75297)

NotJump

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$658.4

Value

$743.61

PnL

+$85.2

Record

42%

7723-10451 (18174)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$636.44

Value

$621.22

PnL

-$15.22

Record

51%

17604-16613 (34217)

Both legs:

Jan Kumstat$505.461.1¢-$46.16

Joel Schwaerzler$185.6451¢+$30.94

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$985.3

Value

$471.2

PnL

-$514.1

Record

51%

1591-1531 (3122)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR

Joel Schwaerzler

Invested

$375

Value

$404.28

PnL

+$29.28

Record

57%

230-176 (406)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$284.85

Value

$358.93

PnL

+$74.08

Record

48%

1150-1258 (2408)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$393.62

Value

$322.23

PnL

+$37.74

Record

53%

676-604 (1280)

Both legs:

Jan Kumstat$165.4251.8¢+$46.7

Joel Schwaerzler$141.1443.2¢-$8.96

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18CTR

Joel Schwaerzler

Invested

$257.57

Value

$261.36

PnL

+$3.79

Record

66%

582-303 (885)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Joel Schwaerzler

Invested

$128.73

Value

$174.87

PnL

+$46.14

Record

46%

9226-10934 (20160)

TRCM

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$137.5

Value

$155

PnL

+$17.5

Record

55%

3973-3204 (7177)

Eulhunter

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$244.24

Value

$133.08

PnL

-$111.16

Record

54%

5902-4952 (10854)

poshposh

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$183

Value

$93

PnL

-$90

Record

58%

11423-8278 (19701)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$91.95

Value

$86.8

PnL

-$5.15

Record

52%

14024-12784 (26808)

Both legs:

Joel Schwaerzler$23.7232.6¢+$26.55

Jan Kumstat$68.2357.9¢-$31.7

thestingsnake<$100

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$96.19

Value

$45.62

PnL

-$35.74

Record

60%

4144-2783 (6927)

iWasEnoughCTR<$100

Joel Schwaerzler

Invested

$33.35

Value

$43.41

PnL

+$4.09

Record

53%

8070-7281 (15351)

lryyy<$100

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$52.8

Value

$27.28

PnL

-$25.52

Record

46%

7927-9248 (17175)

0xheavy888<$100

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$19.35

Value

$15.99

PnL

-$3.36

Record

56%

7456-5978 (13434)

cigarettes<$100

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$30.5

Value

$15.5

PnL

-$15

Record

56%

18363-14703 (33066)

topdogbigboi<$100

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$7.37

Value

$7.37

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

10050-11152 (21202)

Research grade

NeutralJan Kumstat at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jan Kumstat

19 of 25 top traders (76%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Jan Kumstat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Joel Schwaerzler) and the top 1000 (14 on Jan Kumstat) disagree here.

whaleJan Kumstat 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrJan Kumstat 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedJoel Schwaerzler 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Jan Kumstat 71% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jan Kumstat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.