Daegu Pegasus vs. Anyang

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Anyang (80%) · Anyang at 75¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 9

Daegu Pegasus26¢Anyang74¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Anyang

Consensus Traders

Anyang 80%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$377.47

Smart Money Entry

57.1¢ → 74.5¢

+30% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidAnyang at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Anyang

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Daegu Pegasus26%

Anyang75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Anyang12 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares4,817

Combined PnL+$387.04

Daegu Pegasus3 traders

Total Value$94.34

Total Shares251

Combined PnL-$9.57

Anyang — 80%Daegu Pegasus — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Anyang. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDaegu Pegasus 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrAnyang 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Anyang 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Anyangavg 59.6¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$168.33	51% 17610-16613 (34223)
alpheclabs2	Anyangavg 55.7¢	$507.7	$611.21	+$103.51	48% 92-98 (190)
CI cigarettes	Anyangavg 57.5¢	$316	$368.5	+$52.5	56% 18365-14704 (33069)
poshposh	Anyangavg 55.9¢	$271.54	$322.49	+$50.95	58% 11427-8282 (19709)
38 38791873984189	Anyangavg 52.2¢	$264.54	$286.55	+$73.37	47% 12988-14555 (27543)
BE betwithconvic	Anyangavg 55¢	$617.12	$274.62	-$64.8	57% 488-370 (858)
LR lryyy<$100	Anyangavg 54.5¢	$63.03	$71.23	+$8.19	46% 7928-9254 (17182)
DI dips.CTR<$100	Daegu Pegasusavg 37¢	$59.57	$49.11	-$10.47	46% 7315-8501 (15816)
HRTrading<$100	Anyangavg 67¢	$32.95	$33.97	+$1.03	53% 6370-5754 (12124)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Anyangavg 67¢	$38.19	$31.92	-$6.27	59% 30973-21692 (52665)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Anyangavg 65.1¢	$29	$30.42	+$1.42	51% 994-958 (1952)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Daegu Pegasusavg 45¢	$26.82	$30	+$0.89	50% 4008-3990 (7998)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Daegu Pegasusavg 50.3¢	$15.23	$15.23	+$0	45% 12892-15654 (28546)
TO torta.tech<$100	Anyangavg 64¢	$7.8	$6.82	-$0.97	62% 8307-4990 (13297)
nigiri99<$100	Anyangavg 54¢	$1.62	$1.4	-$0.23	46% 7287-8596 (15883)

Flaznorp

Anyang

Invested

$1,200.62

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$168.33

Record

51%

17610-16613 (34223)

alpheclabs2

Anyang

Invested

$507.7

Value

$611.21

PnL

+$103.51

Record

48%

92-98 (190)

cigarettes

Anyang

Invested

$316

Value

$368.5

PnL

+$52.5

Record

56%

18365-14704 (33069)

poshposh

Anyang

Invested

$271.54

Value

$322.49

PnL

+$50.95

Record

58%

11427-8282 (19709)

38791873984189

Anyang

Invested

$264.54

Value

$286.55

PnL

+$73.37

Record

47%

12988-14555 (27543)

betwithconvic

Anyang

Invested

$617.12

Value

$274.62

PnL

-$64.8

Record

57%

488-370 (858)

lryyy<$100

Anyang

Invested

$63.03

Value

$71.23

PnL

+$8.19

Record

46%

7928-9254 (17182)

dips.CTR<$100

Daegu Pegasus

Invested

$59.57

Value

$49.11

PnL

-$10.47

Record

46%

7315-8501 (15816)

HRTrading<$100

Anyang

Invested

$32.95

Value

$33.97

PnL

+$1.03

Record

53%

6370-5754 (12124)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Anyang

Invested

$38.19

Value

$31.92

PnL

-$6.27

Record

59%

30973-21692 (52665)

ferdinand2<$100

Anyang

Invested

$29

Value

$30.42

PnL

+$1.42

Record

51%

994-958 (1952)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Daegu Pegasus

Invested

$26.82

Value

$30

PnL

+$0.89

Record

50%

4008-3990 (7998)

suntoriCTR<$100

Daegu Pegasus

Invested

$15.23

Value

$15.23

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

12892-15654 (28546)

torta.tech<$100

Anyang

Invested

$7.8

Value

$6.82

PnL

-$0.97

Record

62%

8307-4990 (13297)

nigiri99<$100

Anyang

Invested

$1.62

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.23

Record

46%

7287-8596 (15883)

Research grade

AvoidAnyang at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Anyang

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Anyang. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDaegu Pegasus 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrAnyang 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Anyang 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Anyang wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.