Will Al Nassr Club win on 2026-10-26?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 60¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 88%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
-$42.38
78.3¢ → 59.5¢
-24% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Late
126h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 79.4¢ | $989.11 | $1.1K | +$148.44 | 51% 17610-16613 (34223) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 19.3¢ | $293.01 | $616.15 | +$323.06 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 79.4¢ | $695.97 | $521.4 | -$174.62 | |
KL kleomarcus | Yesavg 80¢ | $304 | $214.73 | -$73.98 | 63% 1674-1000 (2674) |
 alpheclabs2 | Yesavg 77¢ | $199.25 | $153.97 | -$45.28 | 48% 92-98 (190) |
 poshposh | Yesavg 73.6¢ | $119.86 | $99.22 | -$20.63 | 58% 11427-8282 (19709) |
ZZ Zzzz87 | Yesavg 81¢ | $671.88 | $88.06 | +$124.08 | 47% 3172-3549 (6721) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Yesavg 76¢ | $51.09 | $40.01 | -$11.08 | 46% 7928-9254 (17182) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Yesavg 78.4¢ | $52.38 | $39.76 | -$12.62 | 65% 1809-988 (2797) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Yesavg 82.6¢ | $36.36 | $26.18 | -$10.18 | 46% 7287-8596 (15883) |
PL PLACEYOURBETS123CTR<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $8.71 | $16.03 | +$7.32 | 59% 68-47 (115) |
Invested
$989.11
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$148.44
Record
51%
17610-16613 (34223)
Both legs:
Invested
$304
Value
$214.73
PnL
-$73.98
Record
63%
1674-1000 (2674)
alpheclabs2Invested
$199.25
Value
$153.97
PnL
-$45.28
Record
48%
92-98 (190)
poshposhInvested
$119.86
Value
$99.22
PnL
-$20.63
Record
58%
11427-8282 (19709)
Invested
$671.88
Value
$88.06
PnL
+$124.08
Record
47%
3172-3549 (6721)
Invested
$51.09
Value
$40.01
PnL
-$11.08
Record
46%
7928-9254 (17182)
Invested
$52.38
Value
$39.76
PnL
-$12.62
Record
65%
1809-988 (2797)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$36.36
Value
$26.18
PnL
-$10.18
Record
46%
7287-8596 (15883)
Invested
$8.71
Value
$16.03
PnL
+$7.32
Record
59%
68-47 (115)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.