Consensus PnL $69K · win rate 30% (42–98, n=140) · hand-picked wallet · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$68.7K
Record
42W / 98L
Win Rate
30.0%
of 140 settled
Batting Avg
14.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2206
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
10,629
Markets
461
Volume
$11.3M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?No $4.5K · now 45¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (75% of 12)
- Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?No $2.6K · now 28¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
Specialties
438 settled consensus markets · held side won 64% at an average entry of 62¢- Crypto
+8 pts
side won 59% of 63 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +7%
- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 66% of 128 · avg entry 63¢
ROI −1%
- Geopolitics
+10 pts
side won 51% of 39 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Entertainment — held side won 88% of 16 at an average 89¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 22%(won 16% of 97)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 43% of 75)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 63% of 86)
- 70¢ and up: 41%(won 100% of 180)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.