Consensus PnL $17K · win rate 87% (174–27, n=201) · was PM monthly #999 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$17.4K
Record
174W / 27L
Win Rate
87.0%
of 201 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#296
Source
PM monthly #999
Trades
43
Markets
218
Volume
$561.4K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes $2.5K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (81% of 26)
Specialties
183 settled consensus markets · held side won 87% at an average entry of 84¢- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 87% of 53 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +2%
- Soccer
+10 pts
side won 93% of 14 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +3%
- Economy
+4 pts
side won 100% of 16 · avg entry 96¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 45% of 11 at an average 54¢ entry (−8 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 17% of 18)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 33% of 9)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 100% of 5)
- 70¢ and up: 83%(won 99% of 151)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.