Consensus PnL -$463K · win rate 38% (335–536, n=871) · was PM monthly #936 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-463.3K
Record
335W / 536L
Win Rate
38.0%
of 871 settled
Batting Avg
59.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2123
Source
PM monthly #936 + pinned
Trades
36,488
Markets
1,219
Volume
$62.7M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 3 on the consensus side (67%)- Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?No $13K · now 54¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-01?No $7.0K · now 69¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (69% of 15)
- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?No $6.0K · now 54¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (76% of 32)
Specialties
1,035 settled consensus markets · held side won 41% at an average entry of 42¢- Entertainment
+5 pts
side won 40% of 80 · avg entry 35¢
ROI +1%
- NFL
+5 pts
side won 53% of 15 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 39% of 67 at an average 48¢ entry (−10 pts against the price), ROI −15%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 28%(won 11% of 291)
- 30–50¢: 35%(won 39% of 358)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 54% of 261)
- 70¢ and up: 12%(won 88% of 125)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.