Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-01?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 69¢ · $116K held · ends Nov 1

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$115.6K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

67.4¢ → 68.5¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$78.1K

Total Shares113,710

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$32.9K

Total Shares101,763

Combined PnL-$468.08

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 67.1¢	$65.4K	$66.8K	+$2.3K	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Yesavg 33¢	$19.7K	$19.4K	-$298.37	65% 1758-962 (2720)
SI Siddhartha1CTR	Yesavg 33¢	$9.9K	$9.8K	-$150	51% 59-57 (116)
norrisfan	Noavg 70¢	$7.0K	$7.0K	-$47.72	42% 480-668 (1148)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Noavg 66.3¢	$4.4K	$4.5K	+$70.75	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
└ No leg	Noavg 66.3¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$94.84
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$24.1
AN Anon455CTR	Yesavg 30.9¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$34.71	55% 3009-2439 (5448)
CA Cannae	Noavg 68.8¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$4.2	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
P1 P1kaso	Noavg 66¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$10	63% 754-450 (1204)
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Yesavg 33¢	$989.97	$989.97	+$15	47% 100-113 (213)
us391	Noavg 69¢	$515.07	$518.8	+$3.73	51% 1712-1675 (3387)
fyrsken	Noavg 68.7¢	$480.99	$479.49	-$1.5	49% 290-305 (595)
HRTrading	Noavg 67¢	$206.36	$214.06	+$7.7	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$109.17	$105.2	-$3.98	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33¢	$57.42	$53.07	-$4.35
└ No leg	Noavg 69¢	$51.75	$52.12	+$0.37
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 68¢	$46.46	$46.8	+$0.34	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Noavg 69¢	$6.9	$6.95	+$0.05	54% 3099-2669 (5768)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$65,426.56

Value

$66.8K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

darkumbreon88CTR

Yes

Invested

$19,692.59

Value

$19.4K

PnL

-$298.37

Record

65%

1758-962 (2720)

Siddhartha1CTR

Yes

Invested

$9,900

Value

$9.8K

PnL

-$150

Record

51%

59-57 (116)

norrisfan

Invested

$7,043

Value

$7.0K

PnL

-$47.72

Record

42%

480-668 (1148)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Invested

$4,429.11

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$70.75

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

Both legs:

No$2,887.0366.3¢+$94.84

Yes$1,542.0832¢-$24.1

Anon455CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,806.63

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$34.71

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

Cannae

Invested

$1,741.37

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$4.2

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

P1kaso

Invested

$1,319.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$10

Record

63%

754-450 (1204)

DolphinBallerCTR

Yes

Invested

$989.97

Value

$989.97

PnL

+$15

Record

47%

100-113 (213)

us391

Invested

$515.07

Value

$518.8

PnL

+$3.73

Record

51%

1712-1675 (3387)

fyrsken

Invested

$480.99

Value

$479.49

PnL

-$1.5

Record

49%

290-305 (595)

HRTrading

Invested

$206.36

Value

$214.06

PnL

+$7.7

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$109.17

Value

$105.2

PnL

-$3.98

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Both legs:

Yes$57.4233¢-$4.35

No$51.7569¢+$0.37

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$46.46

Value

$46.8

PnL

+$0.34

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Invested

$6.9

Value

$6.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

3099-2669 (5768)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.